Blog : education

NextHome opens newest brokerage in Northern Virginia

NextHome opens newest brokerage in Northern Virginia

Michelle Hale

Pleasanton, CA — May 21, 2020 — NextHome is pleased to announce the newest addition to the franchise, NextHome NOVA Realty, based in Warrenton, Virginia. The brokerage represents the 11th office location opened in Virginia for the NextHome franchise and the 474th NextHome office opened nationally.

The brokerage will offer cutting-edge real estate marketing and technology to 13 counties across Northern Virginia. NextHome NOVA Realty provides buying and selling service to clients in Fauquier, Culpeper, Prince William, Fairfax, Loudoun, Stafford, Spotsylvania, Orange, Madison, Rappahannock, Warren, Clarke, and Frederick counties. 

Located just 45 miles west of Washington D.C., Warrenton is four-square miles brimming with small-town charm. The area attracts residential investors, retirees, and professionals relocating for work with Government contractors or one of the many military facilities, like the Marine Corps Base in Quantico. Warrenton is also attractive for buyers seeking prime equestrian properties. Under the leadership of owner Michelle Hale, NextHome NOVA Realty offers expertise in all these types of real estate transactions – and more. 

Michelle will be NextHome NOVA Realty’s broker of record and owns the franchise alongside her husband, Mark Hale.

Michelle delved into real estate in 2002. Prior to becoming a full-time REALTOR®, Michelle worked in information technology, specializing in databases and end-user applications. 

After obtaining her license, Michelle built a reputation for compassionate client care and service that went above and beyond expectations. Michelle studied architecture and interior design in college and has been the general contractor for two of her own personal residences.

“When I’m looking at new construction, I’m able to clarify anything clients may have questions about,” Michelle said. “When it comes to home inspections, I can also explain things that the average agent might not catch.”

Michelle started her real estate career with Long & Foster, but spent most of the past decade in the business with Century 21 New Millennium in Gainesville.

Eventually, Michelle recognized that in order to continue exceeding her client’s expectations, she needed to take her technology offerings to the next level. 

“As I looked around at my options, other firms didn’t seem to have the tools or eye-catching marketing that is so important to me,” Michelle said. “So, when I stumbled across NextHome, the marketing and technology really caught my attention; the colors, Luke, it all just spoke to me.”

Today, Michelle is building a brokerage where high-quality agents can feel truly supported, can have access to plug-and-play marketing, and receive ethical compensation. 

“I wanted to run a brokerage where agents could see the value of being a NextHome agent,” Michelle said. 

As a top-producing agent, Michelle understood the pain point of getting beautiful marketing produced quickly. That’s why NextHome’s ability to build almost-immediate marketing packages was so attractive. 

In addition to its cutting-edge technology offerings, NextHome NOVA Realty is making a difference for area clients through Michelle’s compassionate leadership and approach to sales. 

“Once clients work with me, they find I am very easy to talk to,” Michelle said. “I think a big part of how I operate is that I can absorb the stress of buying or selling a home so that my clients don’t have as much to worry about. I have a way of creating calm in an otherwise stressful situation.”

Outside of real estate, Michelle enjoys serving in her community. Michelle serves on the Board of Directors for the Fauquier Habitat for Humanity – a position she has held since 2013 minus a one year pause. Her passion for Habitat for Humanity’s work extends into how she runs her business – a portion of every transaction her firm closes goes directly to the organization. 

In addition, Michelle enjoys working with local animal rescues to find forever homes for abandoned dogs, two of which are now members of their family.  

Michelle and Mark have been married since 1992 and together they have two adult daughters. Mark recently retired from commercial construction management and served as an Aviator in the US Army.  

Together, Michelle and Mark enjoy traveling, hiking, and playing golf. 

Please join us in congratulating Michelle and Mark on the opening of NextHome NOVA Realty in Warrenton, Virginia!

 

Interested in being a part of the NextHome Real Estate Franchise? Contact VP of Sales Charis Moreno at Charis@NextHome.com.

 

Each office is an independently owned and operated business.

The Marathon No One Signed Up For

The Marathon No One Signed Up For

Step, step, step, breathe. Step, step, step breathe. Step, step, step, breathe.

This is the rhythmic pace of running. After a while it becomes almost hypnotic as one’s mind drifts from thought to thought only to be interrupted by some sort of discomfort or pain.

Step, step, step, breathe. Step, step, step breathe.

As a runner and prior track cross country and 4-minute mile runner (in High School average pace was 4:08 – 4:12, undefeated for three years), I assure you this is the breathing pattern, I was trained. As were my friends who are runners like Ed Deutschlander, CLU®, CLF & CEO of North Star Resource Group (who gave me the inspiration for this message recently.) Ask any long-distance runner and they will tell you the mind games are simply part of long distance running and we all have to find a way to overcome them to finish. We must force our self to go back to our own pace and remember to step, step, step breathe.

Most of us can relate to this as we are all finding our new cadence and routine. Shelter-in-place and work from home have been going on for months now. Similar to a marathon, the initial few weeks flew by both figuratively and literally. The beginning of a marathon provides a shot of adrenaline to runners, seducing them into a more hurried pace than their training was. Before long, a good part of the race is over and now a different reality enters. But to finish the race they must fall into their own pace and stride, and keep that step, step, step, breathe rhythm. They must learn to shut off the negative thoughts of “this is too hard, this is too long, my body feels a pain, I am not sure I can finish.” On my long runs, now normally 5-7 miles, I must still go through the routine of step, step, step breathe, brain stop thinking of negative things, let’s sing a song, let’s think about goals, what do I need to get done this week, wow look at that view, what’s that down there in the distance, if I make it to that sign, I am a champion, and the list goes on of the mind games I play to keep my pace and finish my run.

Step, step, step, breathe.

This is a marathon no one signed up to run. This is also a marathon where the mile markers and finish line are neither distinguishable nor discernible. Yet as this race continues, glancing at our fellow “runners,” we may find solace in that we are all having the same experience and going through the same emotional roller coaster.

Step, step, step, breathe.

As we navigate this marker-less course the challenges increase. Mentally it is taking a toll. The voice inside of our head was mute at first as we burned through the initial wave of endorphins. That voice is slowly becoming a kettle drum and each step, each day, we not only hear but feel the vibrations coming off of the large drum being struck with every step we take.

Step, step, step, breathe.

In the world of running, what we are experiencing is known as, “The WALL.”

It is a sudden wave of extreme fatigue coupled with some doubts and fears that creep in and are amplified when one is under long periods of prolonged energy exertion and stress. It is when all “pre-race” plans go out the window.

This is a race where the “wall” can’t be avoided. The reason is because this is a race that no one ever trained to run. What we are going through has never occurred in any of our lifetimes. The phrase, “times like this” really don’t apply. There have not been “times like this.”

Some of us have hit the wall, the rest of us will hit the wall at some point.

Having run numerous marathons and half marathons there are several key lessons that will help us through this tough stretch:

THERE IS A FINISH LINE

Even though it may seem there is not an end in sight, there is an end to every race. I have never run a race in which I did not know where or could not see the finish line at the beginning of the race. The finish line usually appears only at the very end of the race, but we always knew where it was or how long it was to get to the finish line. One will run perhaps 5 miles, 10 miles, or 26 miles, but eventually will be able to see the finish line the last few hundred meters. What enables the runner to carry on is knowing there is a finish line. This too has a finish line. It most likely isn’t around the next corner but one needs faith to know that a finish line is ahead and will be crossed.

WHAT ARE YOU RUNNING FOR? STAY POSITIVE!

Every runner and marathoner has a reason why they are running the race. The reasons vary for as many runners as there are, but there is a reason someone elected to endure the difficult task of running a marathon. This is no different. All of us have our reasons for our careers. We all have responsibilities, obligations, goals, commitments, promises, role-modeling and a host of many other important reasons as to why we do what we do.

In challenging times, it becomes even more important to draw, focus and reflect on these priorities and values, in essence our “WHY,” to keep us as strong as possible when fatigue sets in and makes us more vulnerable to not finishing the race.

What is your “WHY?” What is going to pull you through? What is your win going to be from this experience? Focus on the person you will be at the end of the race and how much better you will be for completing this race. Don’t focus on the temporary pain or setbacks that are inevitable with any growing and worthwhile endeavor. STAYING POSITIVE during this fragile stage of the race is imperative and makes all the difference.

KEEP MOVING

The most important part when “hitting the wall” is simply to keep moving. Don’t stop. If you must walk a bit, go through the “water station” slowly and have an extra cup of water, but the key at this stage is to “keep those legs moving.”

Just as we started this journey together with the cadence of step, step, step breathe, it is that same cadence that will have us cross the finish line together. I don’t know many people who run marathons in isolation. It is easier and better to run with others. Support is what pulls one through, and the continued support of the entire Gateway Leadership and Administration will have us all collecting the finisher medals of this race.

Yes, this is the marathon no one signed up for, but when I look at my life there have been many “races” I didn’t sign up for, and I know the same is true for ALL of YOU. Yet I crossed every one of those finish lines a better, stronger and more capable person. I know it also has been the same for you. This race will be no different in that regard, we didn’t sign up for it, we didn’t train for it, yet we will finish it and be the better for it.

So let’s keep taking our steps and breathing.

Step, step, step, breathe.

Shane Westhoelter, AEP, CLU, LUTCF
President/CEO,
Gateway Financial Advisors, Inc

For more helpful advice from our partners at Gateway Insurance Group, Inc. click here.

Securities offered through Registered Representatives of Cambridge Investment Research, Inc., a brokerdealer, member FINRA/SIPC. Advisory services offered through Cambridge Investment Research Advisors, Inc., a Registered Investment Adviser. Gateway Financial Advisors, Inc., and Cambridge Investment Research, Inc. are not affiliated.
NextHome Navigator becomes first brick-and-mortar brokerage in Tiffin, Iowa

NextHome Navigator becomes first brick-and-mortar brokerage in Tiffin, Iowa

Jeff Tackaberry

Pleasanton, CA — May 14, 2020 — NextHome is pleased to announce the newest addition to the franchise, NextHome Navigator, based in Tiffin, Iowa. The brokerage represents the sixth office location opened in Iowa for the NextHome franchise and the 471st NextHome office opened nationally.

NextHome Navigator also represents a milestone for the city of Tiffin real estate industry – it is the first brick-and-mortar brokerage to open in the fast-growing community. 

Tiffin offers the best of small-town living with a 15-minute commute into Iowa City and a 30-minute commute into Cedar Rapids. From this vantage point, NextHome Navigator will serve clients up and down the Interstate 380 corridor between Iowa City and Cedar Rapids. The brokerage’s service areas include Johnson, Iowa, Cedar, Linn, and Washington counties.

NextHome Navigator is owned by Jeff Tackaberry. Jeff is bringing more than 17 years of experience to area buyers and sellers. Although Jeff finds working with first-time homebuyers exceptionally rewarding, he is also experienced in relocations and upward mobility clients. 

Jeff began his real estate career in 2003 in Iowa City. Over 17 years, Jeff has worked with two nationally recognized brands and two large locally recognized brands. During his time at Iowa Realty, he became a top producer in the Iowa City company. Later he worked with Skogman Realty. 

“During my time at these larger companies, I began to dream about a more personal brokerage where management was firmly grounded in real estate experience and a place where new agents receive the personal mentoring they crave,” Jeff said.

He learned that bigger is definitely not better. Most importantly, it was during those years that he began to lay the groundwork for the creation of a relationship-based business where people come before profit. 

“Being a top producer was a wonderful accomplishment,” Jeff said. “But in the end, what I’ve always been driven by is the ability to serve folks and do good business for them. The people I serve are truly my greatest motivating force. Helping folks effectively navigate the housing market is my focus. The name “NextHome Navigator” was inspired by the desire to do just that.

“I know that there are many young agents in the area who could benefit from closer mentoring relationships with experienced agents and a broker willing to give them the time and attention they need,” Jeff said. “I saw an opportunity to create a management culture that could truly build service-minded agents – and that is the legacy I want to build in Tiffin.”

As he began researching opportunities, he stumbled across NextHome. The franchise stood out among other options. 

“Despite their good intentions to serve well, it seemed to me like other franchises I looked into got lost in bureaucracy and their own organization,” Jeff said. “In the end, the agent, and how well that agent is supported, will determine how well the client is served. NextHome was the perfect partner to build a supportive, relationship-based brokerage.”

“I really believe that people don’t care what you know until they know that you care,” Jeff said. “If you aren’t serving your agents and your clients with compassion and understanding, then those agents and clients will easily see through the fallacies of your business model. If you genuinely take care of people, that’s good business.”

When he isn’t building his brokerage or supporting his agents, Jeff is active in his community. He is often found working to give back to the community in service as a Clear Creek Amana School District Board Member. 

Jeff and his wife Amy have been married for 28 years and together they have three daughters. Jenna (Smith) is a music teacher in North Carolina, Mikayla is a Sophomore at Olivet Nazarene University in Illinois, and Haley will be starting her senior year of high school this fall. To add even more excitement to the family, they enjoy their two Golden Doodles; Wrigley, a 105-pound gentle giant, and Marley, a sweet new pup they recently welcomed into their home.

Please join us in congratulating Jeff on the opening of NextHome Navigator in Tiffin, Iowa!

 

Interested in being a part of the NextHome Real Estate Franchise? Contact VP of Sales Charis Moreno at Charis@NextHome.com.

 

Each office is an independently owned and operated business.

NextHome announces new brokerage in Hawaii

NextHome announces new brokerage in Hawaii

Michael Drutar & Lisa Vos Drutar

Pleasanton, CA — April 10, 2020 — NextHome is pleased to announce the newest addition to the franchise, NextHome Paradise Realty, based in Kailua-Kona, Hawaii. The brokerage represents the fifth office location opened in Hawaii for the NextHome franchise and the 457th NextHome office opened nationally.

The brokerage will serve residential, luxury, and investment clients across west Hawaii. Service areas include North and South Kona as well as North and South Kohala.

NextHome Paradise Realty is owned by the husband and wife team Michael Drutar and Lisa Vos Drutar. Michael is a 16-year veteran of Big Island real estate with a passion for helping the areas real estate professionals achieve their highest potential.

For the past 16 years, Michael has been affiliated with two nationally recognized franchised brands. In those years, he was able to develop a strong grasp on the Hawaii housing market and achieve outstanding sales numbers. In addition, one of Michael’s proudest achievements has been his legislative advocacy on behalf of thousands of REALTORS® and the area’s investors and owners. 

“I’m really proud of being able to give back to the real estate community,” Michael said. “In the last couple of years we’ve seen major legislation with short term vacation rentals and I was able to be a part of educating lawmakers through that process.”

Michael continues to serve with his area associations to help guide public policy. For his efforts and accomplishments in real estate, Michael was named REALTOR® of the Year in 2019 by the West Hawaii Association of REALTORS®

In 2019, his dedication to local REALTORS® led Michael to consider opening his own brokerage. 

“I began to notice subtle shifts in the real estate industry in general,” Michael explained. “I began to notice that many brokerages were passionate about building the number of agents working with them, but in the process, some agents were being left behind. I believe that wherever you focus your business strategy is where you are going to have success.”

Success to Michael looked like shifting the emphasis of his profession back to individualized training, personal coaching, and client-focused business. 

“I saw the opportunity to do something different,” Michael said. 

As he began looking into franchise opportunities, he discovered NextHome in an industry report. Although the company’s branding caught Michael’s eye, he knew that a strong brand will only get you so far. 

“The branding is truly a differentiator and I loved it,” Michael said. “But after that, it was the philosophy of the company that really fell in line with what I believed. It was 100 percent a natural fit. I really appreciated that the leadership team is knowledgeable about what the real estate industry is like today – they are in touch with what’s happening now, and where we are heading.”

In addition, Michael was impressed by how NextHome’s technology tools enhanced his agent’s customer service abilities. 

“I really appreciated that the technology can work with the agent to enhance their relationship with the client rather than putting up potentially difficult technology as a barrier between them,” Michael said. “Partnering with a truly client-centric company aligned with where I wanted to be.”

Today, Michael is providing west Hawaii agents with the career-building support and knowledge they have been craving. 

“The primary focus at NextHome Paradise Realty is not agent count, it is nurturing great agents and great relationships with our clients,” Michael said.

That focus is attractive to clients across the Big Island.

“We are going to get back to putting the client first,” Michael said. “We want to teach people how to provide such superior service that they create relationships for life. The best way to do business is to take care of your clients.”

When he isn’t supporting NextHome Paradise Realty agents, Michael continues to be active with his state and local associations and in his community. He has been the President of his local board and has served as Director and Executive Committee for his state association. Michael has also served as the chair of the West Hawaii Association of REALTORS® Government Affairs Committee and has served on many of the association’s other committees including finance and fundraising. 

Michael is also on the board of directors for Peoples Advocacy for Trails of Hawaii. Currently, the group is advocating for safer routes for kids to bike and walk to school.  

In his spare time, Michael enjoys road biking with The Coffee Talk Riders – a social cycling club he founded alongside his wife that has blossomed into hundreds of members. 

Michael has been married to Lisa since 2013 and together they enjoy networking and getting to know new people. Lisa is originally from Washington state and runs her own bookkeeping company.  

Please join us in congratulating Michael and Lisa on the opening of NextHome Paradise Realty in Kailua-Kona, Hawaii!

 

Interested in being a part of the NextHome Real Estate Franchise? Contact VP of Sales Charis Moreno at Charis@NextHome.com.

 

Each office is an independently owned and operated business.

NextHome Gulf Coast announces fourth Florida office

NextHome Gulf Coast announces fourth Florida office

Tony Anderson

Pleasanton, CA — April 2, 2020 — NextHome is pleased to announce the expansion of NextHome Gulf Coast in Port Richey, Florida. The brokerage represents the 70th office location opened in Florida for the NextHome franchise and the 453rd NextHome office opened nationally.

The brokerage is the fourth NextHome Gulf Coast location for residential and investment property expert Tony Anderson. Tony opened his flagship NextHome office in Largo in 2016 and soon followed with offices in Palm Harbor and St. Petersburg. 

This new location will allow NextHome Gulf Coast to better serve customers in the communities of New Port Richey, Trinity, Land ‘O Lakes, Wesley Chapel, and throughout Pasco County. 

“Port Richey has already contributed to the growth of our business and we are excited to now have a presence in the community,” Tony said.

According to census data, Pasco County Florida is among the fastest 100 growing counties in the United States. With plenty of land for home development and booming job growth, Tony knew that Port Richey was the perfect place to expand. 

“In 2019, Pasco County tourism welcomed over one million visitors,” Tony said. “Many of these guests will explore the area for retirement, second homes, and real estate investments. We appreciate the opportunity to assist them in the real estate market and could not be more pleased with this opportunity.”

The Port Richey location builds on Tony’s years of success and hard work. 

After 15 years in the cellular phone industry, Tony entered real estate as an investor. He bought his first investment property in 2003 and rehabbed and resold the home in just a few months. Realizing he made a substantial profit in a relatively short period of time, Tony left his job and purchased six properties over the next three years – turning all of them for a profit.

In late 2005, Tony made the decision to immerse himself completely in real estate by getting his real estate license and representing himself on his purchases.

The following year, the real estate market saw significant shifts in values. Tony held off purchasing properties and turned his focus to working with buyers and sellers. He eventually connected with a foreclosure listing agent, where he learned the methods of selling foreclosure properties.

From 2008 until late 2012, Tony worked for an REO real estate broker and honed his skills in negotiation and client services. During this time, Tony realized it was about working smarter – not harder.

“Looking at the real estate landscape, it was quite obvious that leverage was key in creating a sustainable business,” Tony said.

In 2012, Tony accepted the position of manager for a Largo-based brokerage. Under his leadership, he was able to grow the company from a single agent brokerage to over 30 agents in less than three years. His success led to his promotion in 2016, where he was appointed the managing broker for the company’s expansion location in Clearwater.

In mid-2016, Tony felt the need to consider his options. Opening his own brokerage made the most sense and NextHome was a franchise Tony had been watching on for some time.

“I kept seeing the NextHome real estate signs showing up in various neighborhoods in Florida,” Tony recalled. “As I found out more about the company, I realized it would be the perfect franchise to align my new brokerage with.”

Today, Tony is enjoying all the success that a partnership with NextHome brings. 

“From the start I had a growth plan,” Tony said. “NextHome is new and fast-growing provides an opportunity to grow right along with them. We could not have accomplished this with any other brand.”

When not selling real estate, Anderson loves to spend time with his wife Peppy. After enjoying 16 years together, the couple was recently married in April of 2016.

 

Interested in being a part of the NextHome Real Estate Franchise? Contact VP of Sales Charis Moreno at Charis@NextHome.com.

 

Each office is an independently owned and operated business.

Information From Past Pandemics, And What We Can Learn: A Literature Review

Information From Past Pandemics, And What We Can Learn: A Literature Review

The United States has officially entered a bear market, with major financial indices falling by more than 20% since the beginning of the year. The market has fallen in response to a mix of information, including global community spread of the Novel Coronavirus COVID-19, a travel ban for Europeans into the US, and general uncertainty about a fiscal response to the virus.

Zillow Research conducted a deep dive into past research and data on the economic effects of global pandemics to help provide perspective on what the future could hold under various scenarios. We found the following main quantitative patterns:

  • During epidemics such as the 1918 influenza or the 2003 SARS outbreaks, economic activity fell sharply during the epidemic (a 5-10% temporary hit to GDP or industrial production over the course of the epidemic) but snapped back quickly once the epidemic was over.
  • This pattern differs from a standard recession, which is a situation in which economic activity falls for 6-18 months and then recovers more slowly.
  • During SARS, Hong Kong house prices did not fall significantly, but transaction volumes fell by 33-72% as customers avoided human contact (“avoidance behavior” like avoiding travel, restaurants, and public gatherings). After the epidemic was over, transactions snapped back to normal volumes.
  • During the current episode in China, early news reports indicate that home prices have so far not fallen but transactions have nearly ceased.
  • During standard recessions, home prices and transaction volumes may fall but this is not always the case (e.g. the 2001 recession).
  • Before February 2020, leading economic indicators (job openings, the yield curve, interest rate spreads, and sentiment indicators) were giving mixed signals about the risk of a standard recession this year, with betting markets (PredictIt, 2020) giving probabilities ranging from 30% in December 2019 to 15% in January 2020, rising to 44% as of March 1. PredictIt defines a recession as at least two consecutive quarters of falling GDP.
  • It is difficult to precisely forecast the probability of an epidemic-related downturn and/or how such a downturn could provoke a standard recession because this depends on how COVID-19 progresses and how this progress interacts with preexisting recession risks and policy responses (ranging from doing nothing to shutting down entire cities for months at a time).

Digging Deeper – Insights From Historical Data and From the Literature

Empirical research into the SARS and 1918 influenza pandemics both indicate a significant loss in output during the time of the pandemic. Hong Kong lost 5.1% of monthly output during the 5 months of the SARS epidemic (or 1.75% of annualized GDP) and the US lost between 7% and 9.5% of monthly industrial production during the 1918 influenza epidemic, with an effect on annual GDP of 0.5%. The effects vary by sector–the epidemics led to people curtailing unnecessary social activities and curtailing human contact, which led to larger falls in services and (semi-)durable goods, while the effect on manufacturing is influenced by trade spillovers.

Since consumers wish to avoid nonessential human contact, the 2003 SARS pandemic led to a temporary fall in monthly real estate transactions from 33% to 72% vs. baseline for the duration of the epidemic, while real estate prices held steady.

Meanwhile, during the current episode in China, news reports and early data provided by Goldman Sachs (2020) indicate a near-shutdown in the volume of Chinese real estate transactions, although there is not yet a clear effect on real estate prices.

AUTHOR(S) SCENARIO DATA/MODEL MAIN FINDINGS
Zillow Economic Research (2020) Hong Kong, SARS, 2003 Aggregated macro data 1.75% loss in annualized GDP, or 5.1% monthly loss at peak. Quick recovery to trend after end of pandemic. 1.3% increase in unemployment; unemployment recovered within 3 quarters. Statistically insignificant 1.9% fall in home prices, count of transactions down by an average of 33% for duration of pandemic.
Lee and McKibbin (2012) Multiple countries, SARS, 2003 Theoretical model 2.63% loss in annualized GDP for Hong Kong, 1.05% loss for China. Size of loss depends on policy response.
Wong (2008) Hong Kong, SARS, 2003 Micro data on 44 housing estates 1.6% fall in home value, 2.8% in infected areas. 72% fall in transactions volume.
Siu and Wong (2004) Hong Kong, SARS, 2003 Disaggregated macro data Shift to at-home consumption, away from travel, restaurants, and entertainment. Trade was mainly unaffected.
James and Sargent (2006, 2006a) Canada and US mild flu pandemic Aggregated macro data Loss of Canadian industrial production of 1.2% at peak of epidemic (Oct 1957). 0.3% to 1.1% of annualized GDP. Coincided with a recession.
CBO (2006) US, mild flu pandemic Theoretical model 1% loss of annualized GDP.
Keogh-Brown et al. (2010) UK, mild flu pandemic Theoretical model 0.6%-2.5% loss of annualized GDP, depending on how customers shift their consumption behavior.
James and Sargent (2006) US, severe flu pandemic Aggregated macro data 1918 flu saw annual GDP impact of 0.5%, with loss of 7% of monthly industrial production at peak (Oct 1918). Coincided with drawdown surrounding end of World War I and a recession.
CBO (2006) US, severe flu pandemic Theoretical model 4.25% loss of annualized GDP.
McKibbin and Sidorenko (2006, 2006a) US, severe flu pandemic Theoretical model 5.5% loss of annualized GDP.
Cooper (2006) US, severe flu pandemic + trade disruption Theoretical model 6% loss of annualized GDP, of which 1.75% is due to trade disruption.
Zillow Economic Research (2020) US, severe flu pandemic, 1918 Aggregated macro data 9.5% loss in industrial production in October 1918 (peak of epidemic) vs. July 1918, but less reliable data on other sectors.
Kennedy, Thompson, and Vujanovic (2006) Australia, severe flu pandemic Theoretical model 6% loss of annualized GDP.
Douglas, Szeto, and Buckle (2006) New Zealand, severe flu pandemic Theoretical model 5-10% loss of annualized GDP.
Keogh-Brown et al. (2010) UK, severe flu pandemic Theoretical model 4.5%-6% loss of annualized GDP, depending on how customers shift their consumption behavior.

Case study: SARS in Hong Kong (2003)

The SARS epidemic began in the Guangdong province of China in November 2002. In February 2003, the first confirmed cases appeared in Hong Kong. The epidemic peaked in March and April 2003 and trailed off during May and June, until Hong Kong was removed from the WHO’s list of affected areas on June 23.

The chart below shows how real GDP and unemployment evolved before, during, and after the SARS epidemic. GDP data are shown as a percent relative to a Q4 2001 baseline. Both datasets are obtained from the Hong Kong Monthly Digest of Statistics, various issues.

Hong Kong GDP growth during the SARS outbreak

Until the onset of SARS in February, GDP was growing and unemployment was falling, consistent with an economic expansion. Then, GDP fell precipitously throughout the duration of the epidemic (by our estimation, 5-6% below trend in April and May), and unemployment rose from 7.4 percent to 8.7 percent, for a 1.3 percent increase. Once the epidemic subsided, GDP snapped back to its pre-epidemic trend, while unemployment took until the winter to recover. Altogether, the total gap between actual and trend GDP during this period is consistent with a loss of 1.75% of annual GDP as a result of SARS, which when spread over 4 months instead of 12, represents a fall in monthly GDP of 5.1%.

This loss is slightly smaller than (but of the same order of magnitude as) the model-based projections of Lee and McKibbin (2012), who predict a larger effect of the disruptions to economic activity caused by the epidemic. Lee and McKibbin simulate such an epidemic using a theoretical model (the “G-cubed” model), and they predict a loss of 2.63% of annual GDP for Hong Kong as a result of the SARS epidemic, versus a loss of 1.05% of annual GDP for China. Lee and McKibbin find that their larger loss prediction is driven by the behavior of macro policy in their model. If macro policy responds effectively to an epidemic, then the loss in output would be smaller than if it did not respond.

We also have data on the behavior of real residential real estate prices and the volume of secondary residential transactions. The chart below shows a real residential real estate price index compiled by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) (2020), as a percent relative to a Q4 2001 or November 2001 baseline. It also shows raw transaction counts of secondary residential real estate transactions, not seasonally adjusted, from Midland Realty (2020).

Hong Kong real estate market during the SARS outbreak

By the time that SARS hit in February 2003, the Hong Kong real estate market had already experienced a downward trend in transactions and in a real residential price index. Between February and May 2003, transactions were 33% below their January 2003 value, before returning to normal by July. We note that this fall is difficult to distinguish from the preexisting downward trend. Meanwhile, real property prices fell to 1.9% below trend in May and then recovered, although this fall is difficult to distinguish from other real estate price swings that are unconnected with SARS.

Elsewhere in the literature, Wong (2008) comes to similar conclusions with respect to house prices. She finds, based on transactions data covering 44 housing estates, that the onset of SARS coincides with a 1.6% decrease in house prices versus a pre-SARS trend (which is comparable with our 1.9%). Importantly, she also finds that the onset of the SARS epidemic coincides with a 72% reduction in transaction volumes for these estates. She explains this pattern (small price reductions coincided with a large reduction in volume) as customers adopting a “wait and see” approach, whereby they avoid nonessential interactions with other people, instead waiting until the end of the epidemic to defer their transactions. This avoidance behavior is noted by Jonas (2013) as a major transmission mechanism from pandemics to economic risk.

Looking beyond real estate, Siu and Wong (2004) examine disaggregated macro data from the SARS episode, and they find that the travel, tourism, durable and semi-durable retail, and entertainment sectors were strongest hit, while production and exports were less affected. This pattern is also consistent with customers avoiding nonessential interactions, although the effect of the crisis on production and exports depends on the extent of the crisis in trading partners, and whether or not that crisis affects supply chains.

Theoretical and Empirical Evidence from the Influenza Literature

Beyond the SARS literature, there is an extensive literature on the past and likely effects of an influenza epidemic. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) (2006) summarizes much of this literature, giving a predicted loss caused by a severe flu epidemic (similar to 1918) of about 4.25% of annual GDP and an estimated loss caused by a mild epidemic (similar to 1957 or 1968) of about 1%. In both cases, the CBO predicts that economic activity would snap back quickly after the epidemic ended, which is consistent with the data from the SARS epidemic in Hong Kong. However, since these theoretical models are mainly constructed using annual aggregates, the models do not make any specific predictions about monthly or quarterly aggregates.

Theoretical studies of influenza pandemics mostly land at losses in excess of 5% of annual GDP. For instance, a study by Kennedy, Thompson, and Vujanovic (2006) simulates a pandemic with ⅓ the mortality rate of the pandemic using a theoretical model. They find a reduction to Australian GDP of about 6%. Similarly, Douglas Szeto and Buckle (2006) predict that a severe pandemic would reduce New Zealand GDP by 5-10%. Meanwhile, McKibbon and Sidorenko (2006) predict that a severe pandemic would reduce US GDP by 5.5%, while Cooper (2006) simulates the CBO’s scenario but with disruptions to trade, and finds a 6% decline instead of a 4.25% decline in GDP. For the UK, Keogh-Brown et al. (2010) simulate mild and severe pandemics and find GDP losses of 0.6% to 2.5% for the mild scenario and 4.5% to 6% for the more severe scenario.

Contrasting with the theoretical studies, the empirical study of James and Sargent (2006) predicts that a severe flu pandemic would reduce Canadian GDP by 0.3 percent to 1.1 percent. James and Sargent base their estimates on macro data from US flu pandemics in 1918, 1957, and 1968. They find that the severe 1918 pandemic reduced annual GDP by 0.5% in 1918, with smaller effects from the other two mild pandemics. James and Sargent also cite data from the SARS outbreak, finding that while SARS severely affected tourism, travel, and services in the short run, it did not harm Hong Kong’s productive capacity in the medium run. In a similar vein, Garrett (2007) documents severe localized effects of the 1918 pandemic in places such as Little Rock, where merchants reported a 40-70% decrease in sales during the pandemic, and Memphis, where a pandemic-induced labor shortage disrupted operations. Altogether, these disruptions corresponded with a fall in a monthly industrial production index from 123.4 in July 1918 to 112.2 in October 1918 (-9.5%). The underlying data are reported by Persons (1931) and would correspond with a 2.4% fall in annual GDP for a three-month pandemic, given that industrial production is ordinarily more volatile than GDP. In addition, the Federal Reserve Bulletins from the time report significant disruptions to retail trade (up to one-third of the workforce out at any specific time) and especially to nonessential gatherings.

Altogether, the theoretical literature on influenza has given somewhat larger output losses than historical data, although the empirical literature and historical data indicate that output losses vary according to geography (harder-hit areas have higher output losses) and sector (nonessential services being hardest hit). Furthermore, trade disruptions can make the impact of the epidemic larger than it would otherwise have been.

Early Indications from the COVID-19 Outbreak in China

While official data are still not yet ready for January or February 2020, unofficial data reported by Brown (2020) at Marketwatch indicate that Chinese house prices remained stable from December to January (+0.27%) although the volume of transactions has fallen by 90 to 98% from normal. This episode illustrates a particularly strong “wait and see” pattern similar to what happened during the SARS outbreak–customers are not going to walk-throughs or closing on transactions in person. Data in upcoming weeks will tell us how long this outbreak lasts in China.

Additionally, a report by Hatzius et al. (2020) at Goldman Sachs shows detailed activity data from China during the current episode. The Hatzius report corroborates the Brown report–property transactions and transportation have nearly ceased due to avoidance behavior (some of it driven by a public policy response) while the consumption of coal fell by only 30% year over year, since people still need to heat their homes.

………………..

Appendix: Data Sources for Hong Kong Analysis

  • Monthly GDP: GDP is officially measured on a quarterly basis–we took seasonally adjusted growth rates from the Hong Kong Monthly Digest of Statistics, various issues. We first took logarithms and then interpolated it to a monthly basis using our own interpolation algorithm based on Fernandez (1981). We therefore urge caution in interpreting month-to-month movements.
  • Monthly unemployment: We took seasonally adjusted unemployment rates from the Hong Kong Monthly Digest of Statistics, various issues. The unemployment rate is presented in the Digest as a 3-month centered moving average.
  • Monthly real residential real estate prices: We took quarterly unadjusted real residential real estate prices from the St. Louis Fed’s FRED website. The original source of these data is the Bank of International Settlements (2020). We seasonally adjusted these data ourselves, took logarithms, and then interpolated it to a monthly basis using our own interpolation algorithm. We therefore urge caution in interpreting month-to-month movements.
  • Monthly real estate transactions: We took raw secondary transactions volumes directly from the online datasets published by Midland Realty (2020).

References

Bank for International Settlements (BIS), 2020, via FRED Database. “Selected residential property price series – data documentation”. Source: National sources, BIS residential property price database (http://www.bis.org/statistics/pp.htm). FRED URL: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/QHKR628BIS

Brown, Tanner, 2020. “Coronavirus slows China’s property market to a crawl — and even the most robust real-estate app is no match.” Marketwatch, Feb. 21, 2020, retrieved on Feb. 28, 2020. URL: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/coronavirus-slows-chinas-property-market-to-a-crawl-and-even-the-most-robust-real-estate-app-is-no-match-2020-02-18

Census and Statistics Department, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, 2020. Hong Kong Monthly Digest of Statistics, various issues.

Congressional Budget Office (CBO), 2006. “A Potential Influenza Pandemic: An Update on Possible Macroeconomic Effects and Policy Issues.” Manuscript, Congressional Budget Office. URL: https://www.cbo.gov/publication/17785

Cooper, Sherry, 2006. “The Avian Flu Crisis: An Economic Update.” Manuscript, BMO Nesbitt-Burns.

Douglas, James, Kam Szeto, and Bob Buckle, 2006. “Impacts of a Potential Influenza Pandemic on New Zealand’s Macroeconomy.” Policy Perspective Paper 06/03, New Zealand Treasury. Retrieved February 28, 2020. URL:

https://treasury.govt.nz/publications/ppp/impacts-potential-influenza-pandemic-new-zealands-macroeconomy-pp-06-03-html

Federal Reserve Bulletin, various issues, via Thomson Reuters. “References to ‘influenza’ in the monthly Federal Reserve Bulletin during 1918 and 1919.” Retrieved on Feb. 28, 2020. URL: https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/ce/7/8626/8607/INFLUENZA%20REFERENCES%20IN%20THE%20FEDERAL%20RESERVE%20BULLETIN%201918-19.pdf

Fernández R.B. 1981. “A methodological note on the estimation of time series,” The Review of Economics and Statistics 63, pages 471-478. URL: https://www.jstor.org/stable/1924371?seq=1

Garrett, Thomas A., 2007. “Economic Effects of the 1918 Influenza Pandemic.” Manuscript, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Retrieved on Feb. 27, 2020. URL: https://www.stlouisfed.org/~/media/files/pdfs/community-development/research-reports/pandemic_flu_report.pdf

Goldman Sachs, 2020. “A Larger Virus Hit and Another Round of Rate Cuts.” US Economics Analyst, March 1, 2020. Retrieved March 2, 2020. URL:  https://research.gs.com/content/research/en/reports/2020/03/01/31bfffb7-f94a-4c0e-b0d6-49b1468aed2f.html

Hatzius, Jan, Daan Struyven, David Choi, and David Mericle, 2020. “A Viral Global Slowdown.” Global Economics Analyst, Goldman Sachs Economic Research. Retrieved on March 1, 2020. URL: https://research.gs.com/content/research/en/reports/2020/02/28/ae384520-6a4b-415d-a6e6-6fa28e8e25ee.html

Kennedy, Steven, Jim Thompson, and Petar Vujanovic. “A Primer on the Macroeconomic Effects of an Influenza Pandemic.” Working Paper 2006-11, Treasury of Australia. Retrieved on Feb. 27, 2020. URL: https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/f605/da3a347548d5635e425a5531fdb64cd19c8d.pdf?_ga=2.70573072.1412815931.1583204112-1096427715.1583204112

James, Steven, and Timothy Sargent, 2006. “The Economic Impact of an Influenza Pandemic.” Mimeo, Economic Analysis and Forecasting Division, Department of Finance, Government of Canada. Retrieved on Feb. 27, 2020. URL: https://www.publicsafety.gc.ca/lbrr/archives/cn000034577651-eng.pdf

James, Steven, and Timothy Sargent, 2006a. “The Economic Impact of SARS and Pandemic Influenza.” In: SARS in Context: Memory, History, Policy, ed. Jacalyn Duffin and Arthur Sweetman. McGill-Queen’s Press. Retrieved on Mar. 1, 2020. URL: https://www.google.com/books/edition/SARS_in_Context/xAibijIszawC?hl=en&gbpv=1&printsec=frontcover

Jonas, Olga, 2013. “Pandemic Risk.” World Development Report Background Paper, the World Bank. Retrieved on Feb. 27, 2020. URL:  http://siteresources.worldbank.org/EXTNWDR2013/Resources/8258024-1352909193861/8936935-1356011448215/8986901-1380568255405/WDR14_bp_Pandemic_Risk_Jonas.pdf

Keogh-Brown, Marcus, Simon Wren-Lewis, W. John Edmunds, Philippe Beutels, and Richard D. Smith, 2010. “The Possible Macroeconomic Impact on the UK of an Influenza Epidemic.” Health Economics 19(11), pages 1345-1360. Retrieved on Feb. 28, 2020. Working paper version URL: https://www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu/resources/download/3828.pdf

Lee, Jong-Wha, and Warwick J. McKibbin, 2012. “The Impact of SARS,” in China: New Engine of World Growth, Garnaut, Ross, and Ligang Song, eds. ANU Press. Retrieved on Feb. 28, 2020. URL: https://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctt24h9qh.10?seq=1#metadata_info_tab_contents

McKibbin, Warwick J., and Alexandra Sidorenko, 2006. “Global Consequences of Pandemic Influenza.” Manuscript, Brookings Institution, Lowy Institute for International Policy. Retrieved on Feb. 27, 2020. URL: https://www.brookings.edu/research/global-macroeconomic-consequences-of-pandemic-influenza/

Midland Realty, 2020. “Statistics of Properties Transactions in Land Registry – Last 12 Months.” Retrieved on February 28, 2020. URL: https://en.midland.com.hk/land-registry-record/12months.html

Persons, W.M., 1931. Forecasting Business Cycles. John Wiley, New York, pages 93-143. Data available in the NBER Macrohistory database, via the St. Louis Fed FRED database. Retrieved on Feb. 28, 2020. URL: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1204BUSM363SNBR

PredictIt, 2020. “Will there be a recession in Trump’s 1st term?” Retrieved March 2, 2020. URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/4292/Will-there-be-a-recession-in-Trump’s-1st-term

Siu, Alan, and Y.C. Richard Wong, 2004. “The Economic Impact of SARS: The Case of Hong Kong.” Asian Economic Papers 3:1, pages 62-83. Retrieved on Feb. 27, 2020. URL: https://hub.hku.hk/bitstream/10722/88855/1/content.pdf

Wong, Grace, 2008. “Has SARS Infected the Property Market? Evidence from Hong Kong.” Journal of Urban Economics 63(1), pages 74-05. Retrieved on Feb. 27, 2020. URL: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0094119007000095

Meet your February 2020 NextHomie of the Month!

Meet your February 2020 NextHomie of the Month!

Please join us in congratulating our NextHomie of the Month for February 2020, Denise Outlaw Adams of NextHome 2Buy-R-Sell in St. Louis, MO. Congratulations, Denise!

My first question to Denise was “Why Outlaw? Where did it come from?” Her answer left me with chills.

“My Great, Great Grandfather lived in the South and was a slave. He was caught at the gate of the property he worked on with one of the owner’s horses. They said he was a thief and they lynched him. In those days as an indentured servant, the slave took the last name of the people that owned them. Before his lynching, he proclaimed that he would never take his owner’s name and that he would die an Outlaw, and to this day his name carries on,” said Denise.

I was speechless… what followed was a glorious and wonderful conversation of all things Denise Outlaw Adams.

Denise was licensed in real estate in 1998. Prior to working in real estate, she worked in Human Resources for Anheuser Busch and McDonald’s. During that time, she lived in all corners of the nation. She moved around from Detroit to Dallas, Houston, Washington DC, Fairfax, VA to Pasadena, CA, and purchased 18 houses in the process!

“By the time I got back to headquarters at Anheuser Bush in St. Louis, I was ready to put some roots down,” said Denise.

Buying and selling houses and the business of relocation had become quite familiar to her by this time. In St. Louis she has purchased eight additional houses. It was easy to realize real estate was a natural next step.

After working for big-box franchises for many years, Denise decided to spread her wings and fly on her own. One day she happened upon a NextHome ad in REALTOR Magazine. However, it was immediately AFTER she had just established her own brand 2Buy-R-Sell. Yep, she had just completed trademarking her new logo, bought the office, and even had the ribbon cutting with the local chamber of commerce. However, she was still curious and investigated NextHome a bit more.

After meeting with Charis and receiving an invitation to attend the first NextHome conference in Nashville, Denise proclaimed “I. AM. HOME. When you’re home, you’re home, and you just know it.”

She rebranded everything and move forward in orange and hasn’t looked back since. NextHome 2Buy-R-Sell was established within the first one hundred offices in the company.

In has not been without grit and determination that Denise has remained an inspiration to all those she has helped in real estate, and continues to help.

“In the last three years, I have buried seven people that are very very close to my heart. Hardest three years I’ve had in my life. It is the

love and caring from my NextHome family and clients that have kept me going. 2020 is my year, look out!” said Denise.

When not busy with promoting NextHome 2Buy-R-Sell, Denise loves to travel, entertain, hang with her new pup Mitzi, and occasionally partake in a little Casino therapy.

“I am old school,” said Denise. “As long as I put God first, have truth in my heart, and live and do right the blessings will come. I always put people first. We think we are fighting things by ourselves, as humans we should share from the heart. Allowing ourselves to open up and not judge helps us find we have more in common with people when we are open and vulnerable. We are all just people”

Rapid Fire Questions!

AM: Describe yourself in three words

DOA: Honest, empathetic, leader. I am direct and have an over the top sense of humor. I jump right in there and take over. My worst trait is patience, I have quick wit so I get it, I have to learn to slow my roll.

AM: Do you have a favorite quote?

DOA: “You can’t fix what you don’t acknowledge”

AM: How do you define success?

DOA: Health, peace of mind, and clarity

AM: What describes a NextHomie?

DOA: Character, people first, fire

AM: Any words of wisdom for NextHomies?

DOA: At the end of the day if you have love and peace in your heart, you win. Every day I wake up grateful. Don’t let adversity get you down!

It’s easy to see why Denise earned the February 2020 NextHomie of the Month recognition. NextHomies, be sure to take a minute and get to know Denise when you see her at the 2020 NextHome Conference. That smile will shine from across the room 🙂 Congratulations, Denise!

Thanks for the wonderful year of interviews NextHomies!

Amanda Mills

NextHome Culture Committee Chair

Home Value Growth Expected to Re-Accelerate Just in Time For Home Shopping Season (January 2020 Market Report)

Home Value Growth Expected to Re-Accelerate Just in Time For Home Shopping Season (January 2020 Market Report)

  • The typical home in the U.S. is worth $245,193, up 3.8% from a year ago.
  • There were 1,500,262 homes listed for sale in January, down 8% from a year ago.
  • Typical U.S. rent grew 2.3% year-over-year, to $1,602.

Annual U.S. home value growth slowed for the 21st consecutive month in January, but you have to squint to spot the difference. Paired with inventory that is hovering near record lows, the nearly two-year slowdown in the housing market may come to an end right as home shopping season kicks off.

U.S. home values grew 3.8% year-over-year to a Zillow Home Value Index of $245,193, less than one-hundredth of a percentage point slower than the previous month (before rounding: 3.77% year-over-year growth in December, 3.76% in January), according to the January Zillow® Real Estate Market Report. Annual home value appreciation has slowed in each month since April 2018, but this is the smallest month-over-month drop during that period.

Among the nation’s 50 largest markets, annual home value growth in January was fastest in Memphis (6.9%), Phoenix (6.7%) and Birmingham (6.3%). Growth was slowest in San Jose (-2.9%), New York (+.8%) and San Francisco (1%). Annual growth in San Francisco, while very modest, broke a streak of annual declines that dated to May 2019.

Annual home value growth in 27 of the 50 largest U.S. metro markets was faster in January compared to December, and was flat in one additional market. In other words, the slowdown has already reversed itself in many places, and it may be only a matter of time before that reversal will begin showing up in faster national appreciation numbers.

At the same time as the ongoing slowdown in home value appreciation has largely bottomed out, the number of homes listed for sale remains incredibly low. Inventory increased from record lows a month earlier, but was down 8% year-over-year in January — the biggest annual drop since March 2018. There were 1,500,262 homes on the market last month, up 4,295 from the previous month but down 130,310 year-over-year.

Inventory was down year-over-year in 47 of the nation’s 50 largest metro markets. For-sale inventory fell the most from a year ago in Seattle (-27.6% year-over-year),  Phoenix (-24.5%) and San Diego (-23.1%). The three large markets in which inventory rose year-over-year in January were: San Antonio (+7.7%), Detroit (+6.4%), and Chicago (+0.3%).

This persistently low inventory is a key reason why home value growth is expected to speed up once again. The economy has remained strong, mortgage rates are low and buyers will be competing for a limited number of homes this home shopping season. Inventory appeared to have hit bottom and was on an upswing a year ago, rising year-over-year in every month between September 2018 and April 2019. But in hindsight, that “growth” was illusory, largely a result of a temporary stock market dip, prolonged government shutdown and a surge in mortgage interest rates that spooked buyers and/or prodded on-the-fence sellers to list for fear of losing out if a prolonged slump developed, pushing inventory up.

But as the economic storm clouds on the horizon in early 2019 cleared up, we saw buyers return in droves, taking advantage of ultra-low mortgage rates. This first look at 2020 data suggests we could see the most competitive home shopping season in years, as buyers are already competing over near-record-low numbers of homes for sale. That is likely to mean more multiple-offer situations, and that buyers will have a harder time finding the perfect fit for their families. The good news for buyers is that low mortgage rates are helping to make homeownership more affordable, and home builders are responding to the hot housing market by starting construction on more homes than at any time since 2007.

Rent growth remained stable, with the typical U.S. rent now $1,602/month, up 2.3% year over year and just $1 more than last month. Annual rent growth has hovered between 1.7% and 2.4% in every month over the past year. Rent was up year-over-year in 47 of the nation’s top 50 markets. Annual rent growth was fastest in October in Phoenix (up 7.9% YoY), Pittsburgh (+7%) and Cincinnati (+5.7%).

NextHome Expands into West Virginia

NextHome Expands into West Virginia

Curtis Siever

Pleasanton, CA — February 25, 2020 — NextHome is pleased to announce the expansion of NextHome Realty Select. The new Martinsburg-based brokerage represents the first franchised location opened in West Virginia for NextHome. 

NextHome Realty Select – Martinsburg is owned by real estate veteran Curtis Siever. His new brokerage builds on the success of his first three Virginia-based NextHome offices; Winchester, Woodstock, and Front Royal. 

In addition to serving the growing West Virginia Eastern Panhandle, NextHome Realty Select will continue to provide residential real estate, new construction sales, land sales, and lot development services to the areas of Winchester, Front Royal, Woodstock, Linden, and the Northern Shenandoah Valley.

The expansion into Martinsburg was a natural next step for Curtis and his team of more than 20 professional agents. 

“Two of my agents live just outside Martinsburg and seven other fantastic agents are licensed in West Virginia,” Curtis said. “We’ve been serving buyers and sellers in the eastern panhandle of West Virginia for more than two years now, but we didn’t have a physical location or a franchise brand that covered that area. Now we do, and we are thrilled to be able to better serve this growing population.”

Located just 90 minutes outside Washington D.C., Martinsburg is one of the fastest-growing cities in West Virginia and an attractive choice for major manufacturing companies. Since announcing its mega plant in 2015, Proctor & Gamble has brought more than 1,400 jobs to the Martinsburg area. In January, Clorox also announced a $190 million investment in a new plant at Martinsburg’s Tabler Station Business Park. That new plant, which is still in the approval phase, would bring more than 100 additional jobs to the Martinsburg area. 

“It’s on the Interstate 81 corridor, which is a major north/south thoroughfare,” Curtis said. “The transportation infrastructure is there for manufacturing, making the area really attractive. In addition, there is a commuter train that runs from Martinsburg to Washington D.C., so you have that ability to commute into the city.”

In addition, Martinsburg boasts attractive home prices. According to Curtis, the average sales price hovers around $180,000. Curtis added that the residential market has seen about a 2.8 percent increase in gross value year over year.

“You have jobs, you have industry, you have convenient access, and you have affordability,” Curtis said.

In this context, NextHome Realty Select – Martinsburg is poised to provide superior and knowledgeable service to clients who are relocating, investing, or looking for the perfect right-sized home. 

Curtis has been working in real estate for 26 years. Originally from Front Royal, he was licensed in 1994 and started his career with Weichert Realtors. Curtis’s brother, Terry, was the owner of a successful real estate construction business. Blue Ridge Construction created beautiful homes but needed someone to market and sell these properties. Curtis was the perfect person to provide that service.

The early years of his career were spent selling homes in the Front Royal and Linden areas to many clients moving from the Northern Virginia and D.C. area. Curtis also had a desire to build new construction homes and managed a construction company from 2003 to 2008, building 35 new homes.

Over the next two decades, Curtis leveraged his new construction sales background to create an incredibly successful real estate sales career. Averaging over 40 transactions yearly, he consistently ranks as one of the top producers in his area.

In early 2016, Curtis felt it was the right time to open his own brokerage. He attained his broker’s license and began looking for a franchise that would best help him deliver services and technology to his brokerage.

“I found NextHome through a simple Google search,” Curtis recalled. “I was hooked on the website and found myself researching the company pretty thoroughly before reaching out to (NextHome’s Vice President of Sales) Charis Moreno.”

Since embarking on a career with NextHome, Curtis has enjoyed phenomenal success. In 2019, his three locations were able to close more than 240 transactions and reach $50.5 million in sales volume. Although impressive, these numbers represent an even larger accomplishment for Curtis and all the agents at NextHome Realty Select; they were able to increase their business by 62 percent year over year. 

In addition, Curtis has been able to pursue his passion for mentoring and teaching by becoming a NextHome Certified Instructor. This certification allows Curtis to teach National Association of REALTORs (NAR) courses. 

“I am so happy that NextHome Realty Select continues to grow and thrive,” Curtis said. “We hope to continue to attract top-tier agents to our brokerage as we serve the needs of buyers and sellers in Martinsburg.”

When not selling real estate, Curtis enjoys spending time with his wife, Donna. The couple enjoys traveling and spending time with Curtis’s daughter, Amanda.

Please join us in congratulating Curtis and the rest of the team at NextHome Realty Select on their fourth NextHome location!

 

Interested in being a part of the NextHome Real Estate Franchise? Contact VP of Sales Charis Moreno at Charis@NextHome.com.

 

Each office is an independently owned and operated business.

You don’t have to be a millionaire to be sued for a million dollars

You don’t have to be a millionaire to be sued for a million dollars

Business owners and individuals alike can be held “liable” for a variety of perils. General Liability Insurance is often wrapped into other insurance coverage that you’ve already purchased. For example: your auto insurance includes liability for bodily injury or property damage, your homeowner’s insurance includes liability for injury or personal loss on the premises of your home, business insurance can include damage to a rented space, etc.

The trouble is the included limits of liability may not be high enough to cover the true costs of these perils. To ensure you’re adequately covered, you can look into an additional Liability Policy in the form of a General Liability Insurance Policy, Personal Liability Umbrella policy or Commercial Liability Umbrella Policy. Traditionally, these policies start at a minimum coverage of 1 million dollars and increase from there.

These policies cover claims alleging from:

  • Bodily Injury, Medical Costs, Property Damage or Damages to Rented Property
  • Libel, Slander, or Reputational Harm

This added buffer of protection keeps your personal assets and paycheck protected.

The most costly claims events for small business owners include1:

  • Reputational Harm (estimated $50,000 average claim)
  • Vehicle Accident (estimated $45,000 average claim)
  • Fire Damage (estimated $35,000 average claim)
  • Product Liability (estimated $35,000 average claim)
  • Customer Injury or Damage (estimated $30,000 average claim)

Gateway Insurance Group, Inc. provides free consultations for individuals and business owners.  We’re happy to review your existing insurance coverage and explain your current policy and uncover any potential exposures.

Give us a call at 858-428-3929 or visit us at www.gatewayig.com/nexthome

Securities offered through Registered Representatives of Cambridge Investment Research, Inc., a Broker/Dealer, Member FINRA/SIPC. Advisory services offered through Cambridge Investment Research Advisors, Inc., a Registered Investment Advisor. Gateway Financial Advisors, Inc., and Cambridge Investment Research, Inc. are not affiliated.
References:
The Heartford, General Liability Insurance, https://www.thehartford.com/general-liability-insurance?Tcode=TH040060