Urban Rent Slowdown May Signal Renters are Edging Toward the Suburbs

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  • U.S. rent growth has slowed this spring as heavy unemployment hit renters harder than homeowners.
  • Rent price growth in urban ZIP codes has slowed more than those in suburban areas since February, one outcome of unemployment affecting urban renters particularly hard and a possible signal that preferences are shifting in favor of the suburbs.
  • The split between urban areas and the suburbs is largest in Dallas-Fort Worth, Sacramento, San Francisco and the greater New York metro.
  • Conversely, urban rent growth has been stronger than the suburbs in several metros, led by Kansas City, Detroit, Baltimore and Riverside.

While the for-sale market has shaken off the early impact of the coronavirus pandemic and resumed its torrid pre-pandemic pace, rent growth hit the brakes this spring. Rent prices in urban areas have slowed more than those in suburban areas, a possible signal that renters’ preferred location is tilting toward the suburbs.

Rents were chugging along at a stable pace into the early part of this year, but the spike in unemployment has hit renters more severely than homeowners, and millions have moved back in with parents or grandparents, impacting demand for rentals. That’s caused the rate of rent growth to slow from February to June.

During that period, rent price growth has slowed more in urban ZIP codes than in the suburbs — annual rent growth has slowed two percentage points in urban areas, compared to 1.4 percentage points in suburban areas. That is a subtle split, but it goes against the trend seen just before COVID-19 hit the U.S., indicating the shift was influenced by the pandemic. Contributing to this are urban renters who have lost their jobs, are missing rent payments or are moving home in greater numbers than their suburban counterparts, and suburban rentals may now be more appealing for renters who no longer need to commute or are temporarily unable to enjoy some of the amenities of urban living.

Renters usually have more flexibility than homeowners given their relatively short lease terms, and rent prices are often quicker to move as a result. Search traffic data does not yet show home shoppers are more interested in suburban homes than in past years, and both areas are seeing similar home-value growth, time on market, sales above list price and rate of newly pending sales. Survey results, however, indicate working remotely is causing many to reconsider their options. If this early shift in the rental market is indicative of a more widespread change in preferences, similar changes to the for-sale market could follow, but the economic impact on urban renters may be playing a larger role.

It’s important to separate how much of the trend is coming from shifting tastes as opposed to the economic reality that renters face. It may be tempting to conclude that urban renters who have been cooped up without outdoor space and unable to visit their favorite local bar are ready to commit to suburban life, and that is likely true for many. But that narrative ignores the fact that urban areas have been affected by job loss more so than suburban and rural areas, particularly renters who are disproportionately employed in the industries most affected.

This split between urban and suburban rent growth was present in more than half of large U.S. metros studied. The biggest gaps were in Dallas-Fort Worth, Sacramento, San Francisco and the greater New York metro.

Not all markets are following this pattern. Urban rent growth has been stronger than suburban growth in some metros, and that difference is biggest in Kansas City, Detroit, Baltimore, Riverside and St. Louis. Rents in both urban and suburban areas of Kansas City are accelerating, but urban rents are to a greater degree. Baltimore rent growth was softening before the pandemic, and has continued on that trajectory.

METROPOLITAN AREA YOY RENT GROWTH – URBAN AREAS (JUNE 2020) SLOWDOWN SINCE FEB. IN URBAN AREAS (PERCENTAGE POINT DIFFERENCE) YOY RENT GROWTH – SUBURBAN AREAS (JUNE 2020) SLOWDOWN SINCE FEB. IN SUBURBAN AREAS (PERCENTAGE POINT DIFFERENCE) DIFFERENCE IN SLOWDOWN BETWEEN URBAN AND SUBURBAN AREAS (PERCENTAGE POINT DIFFERENCE)
United States 1.60% -2.00% 2.40% -1.40% -0.60%
New York, NY 0.10% -3.80% 2.00% -1.30% -2.50%
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA 1.20% -2.50% 1.20% -2.10% -0.40%
Chicago, IL 1.40% -1.30% 1.30% -1.70% 0.40%
Dallas-Fort Worth, TX 0.00% -3.70% 2.50% -0.50% -3.20%
Philadelphia, PA 2.20% 0.10% 1.80% -1.10% 1.20%
Houston, TX 0.00% -1.90% 0.40% -0.90% -1.00%
Washington, DC -0.10% -3.00% 1.00% -1.80% -1.30%
Miami-Fort Lauderdale, FL 1.80% -0.90% 2.30% -0.90% 0.00%
Atlanta, GA -0.50% -2.00% 4.20% 0.00% -2.00%
San Francisco, CA -2.20% -3.90% 0.80% -1.30% -2.70%
Detroit, MI 4.40% 1.40% 2.00% -0.80% 2.20%
Riverside, CA 4.90% 1.00% 3.80% -0.80% 1.80%
Phoenix, AZ 6.30% -3.20% 6.00% -2.80% -0.40%
Seattle, WA 1.90% -4.30% 2.00% -3.40% -1.00%
Minneapolis-St Paul, MN 2.30% -1.50% 1.70% -2.30% 0.70%
San Diego, CA 2.80% -1.90% 1.50% -2.20% 0.40%
St. Louis, MO 4.20% 0.80% 3.20% -0.90% 1.70%
Tampa, FL 2.20% -2.10% 3.70% -0.90% -1.20%
Baltimore, MD 1.40% -0.20% 0.50% -2.30% 2.10%
Denver, CO 0.50% -3.30% 0.80% -2.60% -0.70%
Pittsburgh, PA 1.60% -3.80% -1.60% -2.40% -1.50%
Portland, OR 2.30% -1.10% 2.60% -1.90% 0.80%
Charlotte, NC 3.40% -0.70% 3.00% -1.60% 0.90%
Sacramento, CA 3.50% -2.70% 3.80% 0.30% -3.00%
San Antonio, TX 1.50% -2.00% 1.90% -1.30% -0.70%
Orlando, FL 0.40% -3.60% 1.50% -2.40% -1.20%
Cincinnati, OH 4.20% -0.80% 3.00% -1.80% 1.00%
Cleveland, OH 4.90% 1.70% 2.80% 0.10% 1.70%
Kansas City, MO 3.70% 1.20% 2.50% -1.20% 2.40%
Las Vegas, NV 2.40% -3.90% 2.00% -3.40% -0.40%
Columbus, OH 3.80% 0.20% 2.90% 0.10% 0.10%
Indianapolis, IN 5.40% -1.00% 3.60% -0.70% -0.30%
San Jose, CA -0.90% -4.20% -0.70% -3.80% -0.40%
Austin, TX -0.10% -3.20% 1.80% -2.80% -0.40%

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