Blog : Education

NextHome Experience Recognized on The Top 1,000

NextHome Experience Recognized on The Top 1,000

Pleasanton, CA — April 3, 2020 — The NextHome franchise is thrilled to congratulate NextHome Experience for being placed on RISMedia’s 2020 Power Broker Report due to their hard work in 2019. The Worthington, Ohio-based brokerage finished the year with $250,325,639 in volume with 1,023 transactions, placing them No. 911 on the list for the entire country. 

NextHome Experience is owned/operated by business partners David Caraboolad and Vadim Barash. Since they joined NextHome in 2016, the brokerage has seen unbelievable growth with the opening of three office locations in Worthington, Granville, and Marysville, Ohio. 

Based on their 2019 production, the brokerage was recognized as the No.1 office in both transactions closed and total sales volume for the entire NextHome national franchise of more than 400 locations. 

“We couldn’t be more proud of David, Vadim, and the entire NextHome Experience team for their hard work and dedication to serving their community,” said James Dwiggins, CEO of NextHome, Inc. “Not only are they incredible real estate professionals and experts in their field, but impeccable human beings you want to surround yourself with.”

Please join us in congratulating NextHome Experience on their continued success!

 

Interested in being a part of the NextHome Real Estate Franchise? Contact VP of Sales Charis Moreno at Charis@NextHome.com.

 

Each office is an independently owned and operated business.

NextHome Gulf Coast announces fourth Florida office

NextHome Gulf Coast announces fourth Florida office

Tony Anderson

Pleasanton, CA — April 2, 2020 — NextHome is pleased to announce the expansion of NextHome Gulf Coast in Port Richey, Florida. The brokerage represents the 70th office location opened in Florida for the NextHome franchise and the 453rd NextHome office opened nationally.

The brokerage is the fourth NextHome Gulf Coast location for residential and investment property expert Tony Anderson. Tony opened his flagship NextHome office in Largo in 2016 and soon followed with offices in Palm Harbor and St. Petersburg. 

This new location will allow NextHome Gulf Coast to better serve customers in the communities of New Port Richey, Trinity, Land ‘O Lakes, Wesley Chapel, and throughout Pasco County. 

“Port Richey has already contributed to the growth of our business and we are excited to now have a presence in the community,” Tony said.

According to census data, Pasco County Florida is among the fastest 100 growing counties in the United States. With plenty of land for home development and booming job growth, Tony knew that Port Richey was the perfect place to expand. 

“In 2019, Pasco County tourism welcomed over one million visitors,” Tony said. “Many of these guests will explore the area for retirement, second homes, and real estate investments. We appreciate the opportunity to assist them in the real estate market and could not be more pleased with this opportunity.”

The Port Richey location builds on Tony’s years of success and hard work. 

After 15 years in the cellular phone industry, Tony entered real estate as an investor. He bought his first investment property in 2003 and rehabbed and resold the home in just a few months. Realizing he made a substantial profit in a relatively short period of time, Tony left his job and purchased six properties over the next three years – turning all of them for a profit.

In late 2005, Tony made the decision to immerse himself completely in real estate by getting his real estate license and representing himself on his purchases.

The following year, the real estate market saw significant shifts in values. Tony held off purchasing properties and turned his focus to working with buyers and sellers. He eventually connected with a foreclosure listing agent, where he learned the methods of selling foreclosure properties.

From 2008 until late 2012, Tony worked for an REO real estate broker and honed his skills in negotiation and client services. During this time, Tony realized it was about working smarter – not harder.

“Looking at the real estate landscape, it was quite obvious that leverage was key in creating a sustainable business,” Tony said.

In 2012, Tony accepted the position of manager for a Largo-based brokerage. Under his leadership, he was able to grow the company from a single agent brokerage to over 30 agents in less than three years. His success led to his promotion in 2016, where he was appointed the managing broker for the company’s expansion location in Clearwater.

In mid-2016, Tony felt the need to consider his options. Opening his own brokerage made the most sense and NextHome was a franchise Tony had been watching on for some time.

“I kept seeing the NextHome real estate signs showing up in various neighborhoods in Florida,” Tony recalled. “As I found out more about the company, I realized it would be the perfect franchise to align my new brokerage with.”

Today, Tony is enjoying all the success that a partnership with NextHome brings. 

“From the start I had a growth plan,” Tony said. “NextHome is new and fast-growing provides an opportunity to grow right along with them. We could not have accomplished this with any other brand.”

When not selling real estate, Anderson loves to spend time with his wife Peppy. After enjoying 16 years together, the couple was recently married in April of 2016.

 

Interested in being a part of the NextHome Real Estate Franchise? Contact VP of Sales Charis Moreno at Charis@NextHome.com.

 

Each office is an independently owned and operated business.

NextHome expands in Philadelphia area

NextHome expands in Philadelphia area

George Kotsopoulos

Pleasanton, CA — April 1, 2020 — NextHome is pleased to announce the expansion of NextHome Alliance, based in Warminster, Pennsylvania. Owned by George Kotsopoulos, the new office builds on the success of his first location in Douglassville. 

The brokerage represents the 11th office location opened in Pennsylvania for the NextHome franchise and the 452nd NextHome office opened nationally.

George is thrilled to be able to open a brokerage in Bucks County, where he was born and raised. 

“It’s where most of my contacts are and we have incredible people working there already,” George said. 

Located north of Philadelphia, the brokerage will serve clients across the city’s western suburbs. In addition, NextHome Alliance will continue to provide superior customer service across Reading, Pottstown, Boyertown, Douglassville, Allentown, and the remainder of Bucks, Montgomery, Berks, and Philadelphia counties. 

The Alliance team is experienced in all types of residential sales and is especially well-versed in investment and flip properties. In addition, team members provide prowess in property management and multi-family real estate.

George began his professional life as a real estate attorney and business leader. After law school, George started work with a national title company. In 1997, he opened his own title insurance agency – Capital Assurance Group. 

After years of working closely with many talented real estate agents, George got his brokers license in 2014. As a newly-minted broker, George transitioned his business into a real estate brokerage with an in-house title company. 

“As an attorney, I’ve always represented REALTORS®, but when I started working as one I developed a greater respect for the efforts they put forward on a daily basis,” George said.

Agents were certainly not required in any way to use the title company services, but the bundle of business helped George and those around him offer a streamlined experience for clients who wanted it.  

Then, George partnered with other area agents as their broker of record as they opened a nationally franchised office. 

“In three years, we were able to grow the company from five to 50 agents,” George recalled. “My time in this role really helped me to understand how to skillfully grow a company.”

Eventually, George decided it was time to open his own brokerage under the NextHome banner. 

“I sent an email to NextHome to inquire about their business and I literally got a call back that same afternoon,” George recalled. “Being responsive is something that I pride myself on, so that call made me feel that I had found my kind of people with NextHome. Charis (NextHome’s Vice President of Sales) went into what the franchise has to offer and I thought the opportunity was ideal.”

George officially opened his Douglassville doors in late June of 2019, and since then has attracted the area’s best agents to his brokerage. 

“I think my 20-plus years of experience as a real estate attorney is very attractive to high-performing agents,” George said. “I want to be able to keep quality for our clients at the center of what we do. We are an office of producing, career-oriented REALTORS®. For the NextHome Alliance team, it’s not all about the numbers – it’s about the quality of the experience.”

When he isn’t guiding the NextHome Alliance team, George enjoys the area’s stunning beaches and attending country music concerts with his wife, Lisa. This year, George and Lisa are celebrating 29 years of marriage. Together, they are the proud parents of Will (25) and Kate (22).

Please join us in congratulating George on the expansion of NextHome Alliance in Warminster, Pennsylvania!

 

Interested in being a part of the NextHome Real Estate Franchise? Contact VP of Sales Charis Moreno at Charis@NextHome.com.

 

Each office is an independently owned and operated business.

NextHome announces new Palm Coast, Florida office

NextHome announces new Palm Coast, Florida office

Paige Brewer & Michelle McKinney

Pleasanton, CA — March 31, 2020 — NextHome is pleased to announce the newest addition to the franchise, NextHome At The Beach II, based in Palm Coast, Florida. The brokerage represents the 69th office location opened in Florida for the NextHome franchise and the 451st NextHome office opened nationally.

NextHome At The Beach II will serve buyers and sellers in the beautiful Flagler and Volusia counties. The brokerage is owned by Florida real estate veterans Paige Brewer and Michelle McKinney. Paige is NextHome At The Beach II’s broker of record while Michelle handles the business’s day-to-day operations. This newest office will compliment Paige’s two other NextHome ventures in Daytona Beach and Miami. 

Palm Coast’s continuing growth made the decision to expand easy. 

“Once people discover Palm Coast they want to move here,” Paige said. “ With all the local shopping, the outdoor opportunities, and the incredible food it becomes everyone’s dream retirement location.”

Paige started her real estate career in Louisiana in 2009 and moved to Daytona Beach upon her husband’s retirement from the military. His retirement proved to be the perfect opportunity to move to a Florida beach community. Paige opened NextHome At The Beach in Daytona Beach in early 2017 and expanded with a second Miami-based branch in early 2019. 

Michelle, who is also a military spouse, began her real estate career in Virginia Beach at a local independent brokerage. Two years later, she joined NextHome and began working with Paige at the Daytona Beach office. 

“I looked at about 10 or 11 different brokerages before I made my decision on who I wanted to go with,” Michelle recalled. “As an agent, I wanted to stand out and be different. I knew I needed to partner with a brokerage that gave me unparalleled branding and marketing options. After an incredible amount of research, I knew that NextHome offered exactly what I wanted.”

Michelle also knew that she was joining an office with a record of excellence. In 2016, the Daytona team sold over $13 million in sales volume with 57 transaction sides – exceptional numbers in a market where the average sales price was $230,000.

Today, Michelle and Paige are combining their talents to bring that same level of excellence to Palm Coast clients. 

“As a leader in business, it is important to look for people who bring synergy,” Paige said. “You need to bring someone in who can strengthen you where you are weak, and Michelle has those qualities. The fit is just right.”

With their combined talents, Michelle and Paige are building an office where experienced, high-producing agents can feel at home and where clients receive exceptional service. 

“Our branding is very forward,” Michelle said. “We offer things that no other brokerage can – not only superior marketing for your property, but also a national connection to a world-class network of brokerages. With NextHome, we are all one big family. It doesn’t matter if you are in Texas or Palm Coast, we can talk to any NextHomie and get great advice and support.”

When they aren’t building their business and helping clients, Michelle and Paige stay busy volunteering for industry associations and supporting their community. 

In 2016, Paige served as the President of the Women’s Council of REALTORS® – Daytona Beach Area Network and in 2017 served as the District Vice President for District 8 and 9 for the state of Florida. In 2019, she was NextHome’s Education Committee Chair and in 2020 she is the State Vice President for the Women’s Council of REALTORS® Florida. 

Michelle is the proud wife of a U.S. Navy Service Member and the mother of three children. Michelle and her husband Joel have been together since 2008 and were married in 2012 and are the proud parents of Caleb (12), Alexis (5), and Zoe (3). 

Please join us in congratulating Michelle and Paige on the opening of NextHome At The Beach II in Palm Coast, Florida!

 

Interested in being a part of the NextHome Real Estate Franchise? Contact VP of Sales Charis Moreno at Charis@NextHome.com.

 

Each office is an independently owned and operated business.

NextHome announces new Toms River brokerage

NextHome announces new Toms River brokerage

Diane Traverso

Pleasanton, CA — March 26, 2020 — NextHome is pleased to announce the newest addition to the franchise, NextHome Nexus Realty Group, based in Toms River, New Jersey. The brokerage represents the ninth office location opened in New Jersey for the NextHome franchise and the 450th NextHome office opened nationally.

The new brokerage is owned by veteran New Jersey real estate agent Diane Traverso. NextHome Nexus Realty Group will serve buyers and sellers across Monmouth and Ocean Counties. 

Located about an hour east of Philadelphia and about 45 minutes north of Atlantic City, Toms River is the county seat of Ocean County. Known for its safety and sense of community, Toms River offers real estate options for young families, condominium communities, and beach lovers. The area is also close to Berkeley Township, where seniors enjoy the affordability and amenities of one of the area’s largest 55+ communities. 

Diane has held a real estate license since 1987. However, her full-time career took off in 1996 when she joined a small, independent agency in Monmouth County. In 2001, she obtained her broker’s license and, in the years that followed, Diane managed offices and worked for large franchised brands. 

In 2009, after several years in brokerage management, Diane dove back into real estate sales. Her commitment to unparalleled service helped Diane achieve the Circle of Excellence Award year after year. 

“I love what I do and am happy to be able to help so many clients and many have become great friends,” Diana said. 

Diane’s real estate career continued to flourish, but she always knew something was missing. 

“I really wanted to build something that I could be proud of and even pass on to my children one day,” Diane said. “I also feel like I’m a leader in the community and I want to build something that will make a difference in people’s lives.”

In early 2019, as she contemplated the coming year, Diane set a goal to open her own brokerage. If only she could find the right opportunity. Then, Diane took a Certified Residential Specialist course where she met a NextHome broker. 

“She told me how she had opened as a small boutique brokerage at first, and converted it over to NextHome,” Diane recalled. “It just sounded intriguing to me. I went home and started looking at the website and little videos and it just resonated with me.”

Today, Diane is using NextHome’s tools to become an industry leader and make a difference in her community.

“When someone comes to NextHome Nexus Realty Group, clients can expect professionalism,” Diane said. “I want to also give back to this community that has given so much to me.”

Diane is an active advocate in the New Jersey real estate community. She is currently the treasurer and secretary for her board office Monmouth/Ocean Regional REALTORS®, the New Jersey chapter president of the Women’s Council of REALTORS®, and also an active member of the REALTORS® Political Action Committee. As she fights for the rights of REALTORS® and property owners, Diane monitors bills and advocates for changes that can positively impact her community. 

When she isn’t building her business or volunteering, Diane enjoys spending time with friends and dancing. She is the proud mother of two adult children, Dan and Kim. 

Please join us in congratulating Diane on the opening of NextHome Nexus Realty Group in Toms River, New Jersey!

 

Interested in being a part of the NextHome Real Estate Franchise? Contact VP of Sales Charis Moreno at Charis@NextHome.com.

 

Each office is an independently owned and operated business.

Information From Past Pandemics, And What We Can Learn: A Literature Review

Information From Past Pandemics, And What We Can Learn: A Literature Review

The United States has officially entered a bear market, with major financial indices falling by more than 20% since the beginning of the year. The market has fallen in response to a mix of information, including global community spread of the Novel Coronavirus COVID-19, a travel ban for Europeans into the US, and general uncertainty about a fiscal response to the virus.

Zillow Research conducted a deep dive into past research and data on the economic effects of global pandemics to help provide perspective on what the future could hold under various scenarios. We found the following main quantitative patterns:

  • During epidemics such as the 1918 influenza or the 2003 SARS outbreaks, economic activity fell sharply during the epidemic (a 5-10% temporary hit to GDP or industrial production over the course of the epidemic) but snapped back quickly once the epidemic was over.
  • This pattern differs from a standard recession, which is a situation in which economic activity falls for 6-18 months and then recovers more slowly.
  • During SARS, Hong Kong house prices did not fall significantly, but transaction volumes fell by 33-72% as customers avoided human contact (“avoidance behavior” like avoiding travel, restaurants, and public gatherings). After the epidemic was over, transactions snapped back to normal volumes.
  • During the current episode in China, early news reports indicate that home prices have so far not fallen but transactions have nearly ceased.
  • During standard recessions, home prices and transaction volumes may fall but this is not always the case (e.g. the 2001 recession).
  • Before February 2020, leading economic indicators (job openings, the yield curve, interest rate spreads, and sentiment indicators) were giving mixed signals about the risk of a standard recession this year, with betting markets (PredictIt, 2020) giving probabilities ranging from 30% in December 2019 to 15% in January 2020, rising to 44% as of March 1. PredictIt defines a recession as at least two consecutive quarters of falling GDP.
  • It is difficult to precisely forecast the probability of an epidemic-related downturn and/or how such a downturn could provoke a standard recession because this depends on how COVID-19 progresses and how this progress interacts with preexisting recession risks and policy responses (ranging from doing nothing to shutting down entire cities for months at a time).

Digging Deeper – Insights From Historical Data and From the Literature

Empirical research into the SARS and 1918 influenza pandemics both indicate a significant loss in output during the time of the pandemic. Hong Kong lost 5.1% of monthly output during the 5 months of the SARS epidemic (or 1.75% of annualized GDP) and the US lost between 7% and 9.5% of monthly industrial production during the 1918 influenza epidemic, with an effect on annual GDP of 0.5%. The effects vary by sector–the epidemics led to people curtailing unnecessary social activities and curtailing human contact, which led to larger falls in services and (semi-)durable goods, while the effect on manufacturing is influenced by trade spillovers.

Since consumers wish to avoid nonessential human contact, the 2003 SARS pandemic led to a temporary fall in monthly real estate transactions from 33% to 72% vs. baseline for the duration of the epidemic, while real estate prices held steady.

Meanwhile, during the current episode in China, news reports and early data provided by Goldman Sachs (2020) indicate a near-shutdown in the volume of Chinese real estate transactions, although there is not yet a clear effect on real estate prices.

AUTHOR(S) SCENARIO DATA/MODEL MAIN FINDINGS
Zillow Economic Research (2020) Hong Kong, SARS, 2003 Aggregated macro data 1.75% loss in annualized GDP, or 5.1% monthly loss at peak. Quick recovery to trend after end of pandemic. 1.3% increase in unemployment; unemployment recovered within 3 quarters. Statistically insignificant 1.9% fall in home prices, count of transactions down by an average of 33% for duration of pandemic.
Lee and McKibbin (2012) Multiple countries, SARS, 2003 Theoretical model 2.63% loss in annualized GDP for Hong Kong, 1.05% loss for China. Size of loss depends on policy response.
Wong (2008) Hong Kong, SARS, 2003 Micro data on 44 housing estates 1.6% fall in home value, 2.8% in infected areas. 72% fall in transactions volume.
Siu and Wong (2004) Hong Kong, SARS, 2003 Disaggregated macro data Shift to at-home consumption, away from travel, restaurants, and entertainment. Trade was mainly unaffected.
James and Sargent (2006, 2006a) Canada and US mild flu pandemic Aggregated macro data Loss of Canadian industrial production of 1.2% at peak of epidemic (Oct 1957). 0.3% to 1.1% of annualized GDP. Coincided with a recession.
CBO (2006) US, mild flu pandemic Theoretical model 1% loss of annualized GDP.
Keogh-Brown et al. (2010) UK, mild flu pandemic Theoretical model 0.6%-2.5% loss of annualized GDP, depending on how customers shift their consumption behavior.
James and Sargent (2006) US, severe flu pandemic Aggregated macro data 1918 flu saw annual GDP impact of 0.5%, with loss of 7% of monthly industrial production at peak (Oct 1918). Coincided with drawdown surrounding end of World War I and a recession.
CBO (2006) US, severe flu pandemic Theoretical model 4.25% loss of annualized GDP.
McKibbin and Sidorenko (2006, 2006a) US, severe flu pandemic Theoretical model 5.5% loss of annualized GDP.
Cooper (2006) US, severe flu pandemic + trade disruption Theoretical model 6% loss of annualized GDP, of which 1.75% is due to trade disruption.
Zillow Economic Research (2020) US, severe flu pandemic, 1918 Aggregated macro data 9.5% loss in industrial production in October 1918 (peak of epidemic) vs. July 1918, but less reliable data on other sectors.
Kennedy, Thompson, and Vujanovic (2006) Australia, severe flu pandemic Theoretical model 6% loss of annualized GDP.
Douglas, Szeto, and Buckle (2006) New Zealand, severe flu pandemic Theoretical model 5-10% loss of annualized GDP.
Keogh-Brown et al. (2010) UK, severe flu pandemic Theoretical model 4.5%-6% loss of annualized GDP, depending on how customers shift their consumption behavior.

Case study: SARS in Hong Kong (2003)

The SARS epidemic began in the Guangdong province of China in November 2002. In February 2003, the first confirmed cases appeared in Hong Kong. The epidemic peaked in March and April 2003 and trailed off during May and June, until Hong Kong was removed from the WHO’s list of affected areas on June 23.

The chart below shows how real GDP and unemployment evolved before, during, and after the SARS epidemic. GDP data are shown as a percent relative to a Q4 2001 baseline. Both datasets are obtained from the Hong Kong Monthly Digest of Statistics, various issues.

Hong Kong GDP growth during the SARS outbreak

Until the onset of SARS in February, GDP was growing and unemployment was falling, consistent with an economic expansion. Then, GDP fell precipitously throughout the duration of the epidemic (by our estimation, 5-6% below trend in April and May), and unemployment rose from 7.4 percent to 8.7 percent, for a 1.3 percent increase. Once the epidemic subsided, GDP snapped back to its pre-epidemic trend, while unemployment took until the winter to recover. Altogether, the total gap between actual and trend GDP during this period is consistent with a loss of 1.75% of annual GDP as a result of SARS, which when spread over 4 months instead of 12, represents a fall in monthly GDP of 5.1%.

This loss is slightly smaller than (but of the same order of magnitude as) the model-based projections of Lee and McKibbin (2012), who predict a larger effect of the disruptions to economic activity caused by the epidemic. Lee and McKibbin simulate such an epidemic using a theoretical model (the “G-cubed” model), and they predict a loss of 2.63% of annual GDP for Hong Kong as a result of the SARS epidemic, versus a loss of 1.05% of annual GDP for China. Lee and McKibbin find that their larger loss prediction is driven by the behavior of macro policy in their model. If macro policy responds effectively to an epidemic, then the loss in output would be smaller than if it did not respond.

We also have data on the behavior of real residential real estate prices and the volume of secondary residential transactions. The chart below shows a real residential real estate price index compiled by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) (2020), as a percent relative to a Q4 2001 or November 2001 baseline. It also shows raw transaction counts of secondary residential real estate transactions, not seasonally adjusted, from Midland Realty (2020).

Hong Kong real estate market during the SARS outbreak

By the time that SARS hit in February 2003, the Hong Kong real estate market had already experienced a downward trend in transactions and in a real residential price index. Between February and May 2003, transactions were 33% below their January 2003 value, before returning to normal by July. We note that this fall is difficult to distinguish from the preexisting downward trend. Meanwhile, real property prices fell to 1.9% below trend in May and then recovered, although this fall is difficult to distinguish from other real estate price swings that are unconnected with SARS.

Elsewhere in the literature, Wong (2008) comes to similar conclusions with respect to house prices. She finds, based on transactions data covering 44 housing estates, that the onset of SARS coincides with a 1.6% decrease in house prices versus a pre-SARS trend (which is comparable with our 1.9%). Importantly, she also finds that the onset of the SARS epidemic coincides with a 72% reduction in transaction volumes for these estates. She explains this pattern (small price reductions coincided with a large reduction in volume) as customers adopting a “wait and see” approach, whereby they avoid nonessential interactions with other people, instead waiting until the end of the epidemic to defer their transactions. This avoidance behavior is noted by Jonas (2013) as a major transmission mechanism from pandemics to economic risk.

Looking beyond real estate, Siu and Wong (2004) examine disaggregated macro data from the SARS episode, and they find that the travel, tourism, durable and semi-durable retail, and entertainment sectors were strongest hit, while production and exports were less affected. This pattern is also consistent with customers avoiding nonessential interactions, although the effect of the crisis on production and exports depends on the extent of the crisis in trading partners, and whether or not that crisis affects supply chains.

Theoretical and Empirical Evidence from the Influenza Literature

Beyond the SARS literature, there is an extensive literature on the past and likely effects of an influenza epidemic. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) (2006) summarizes much of this literature, giving a predicted loss caused by a severe flu epidemic (similar to 1918) of about 4.25% of annual GDP and an estimated loss caused by a mild epidemic (similar to 1957 or 1968) of about 1%. In both cases, the CBO predicts that economic activity would snap back quickly after the epidemic ended, which is consistent with the data from the SARS epidemic in Hong Kong. However, since these theoretical models are mainly constructed using annual aggregates, the models do not make any specific predictions about monthly or quarterly aggregates.

Theoretical studies of influenza pandemics mostly land at losses in excess of 5% of annual GDP. For instance, a study by Kennedy, Thompson, and Vujanovic (2006) simulates a pandemic with ⅓ the mortality rate of the pandemic using a theoretical model. They find a reduction to Australian GDP of about 6%. Similarly, Douglas Szeto and Buckle (2006) predict that a severe pandemic would reduce New Zealand GDP by 5-10%. Meanwhile, McKibbon and Sidorenko (2006) predict that a severe pandemic would reduce US GDP by 5.5%, while Cooper (2006) simulates the CBO’s scenario but with disruptions to trade, and finds a 6% decline instead of a 4.25% decline in GDP. For the UK, Keogh-Brown et al. (2010) simulate mild and severe pandemics and find GDP losses of 0.6% to 2.5% for the mild scenario and 4.5% to 6% for the more severe scenario.

Contrasting with the theoretical studies, the empirical study of James and Sargent (2006) predicts that a severe flu pandemic would reduce Canadian GDP by 0.3 percent to 1.1 percent. James and Sargent base their estimates on macro data from US flu pandemics in 1918, 1957, and 1968. They find that the severe 1918 pandemic reduced annual GDP by 0.5% in 1918, with smaller effects from the other two mild pandemics. James and Sargent also cite data from the SARS outbreak, finding that while SARS severely affected tourism, travel, and services in the short run, it did not harm Hong Kong’s productive capacity in the medium run. In a similar vein, Garrett (2007) documents severe localized effects of the 1918 pandemic in places such as Little Rock, where merchants reported a 40-70% decrease in sales during the pandemic, and Memphis, where a pandemic-induced labor shortage disrupted operations. Altogether, these disruptions corresponded with a fall in a monthly industrial production index from 123.4 in July 1918 to 112.2 in October 1918 (-9.5%). The underlying data are reported by Persons (1931) and would correspond with a 2.4% fall in annual GDP for a three-month pandemic, given that industrial production is ordinarily more volatile than GDP. In addition, the Federal Reserve Bulletins from the time report significant disruptions to retail trade (up to one-third of the workforce out at any specific time) and especially to nonessential gatherings.

Altogether, the theoretical literature on influenza has given somewhat larger output losses than historical data, although the empirical literature and historical data indicate that output losses vary according to geography (harder-hit areas have higher output losses) and sector (nonessential services being hardest hit). Furthermore, trade disruptions can make the impact of the epidemic larger than it would otherwise have been.

Early Indications from the COVID-19 Outbreak in China

While official data are still not yet ready for January or February 2020, unofficial data reported by Brown (2020) at Marketwatch indicate that Chinese house prices remained stable from December to January (+0.27%) although the volume of transactions has fallen by 90 to 98% from normal. This episode illustrates a particularly strong “wait and see” pattern similar to what happened during the SARS outbreak–customers are not going to walk-throughs or closing on transactions in person. Data in upcoming weeks will tell us how long this outbreak lasts in China.

Additionally, a report by Hatzius et al. (2020) at Goldman Sachs shows detailed activity data from China during the current episode. The Hatzius report corroborates the Brown report–property transactions and transportation have nearly ceased due to avoidance behavior (some of it driven by a public policy response) while the consumption of coal fell by only 30% year over year, since people still need to heat their homes.

………………..

Appendix: Data Sources for Hong Kong Analysis

  • Monthly GDP: GDP is officially measured on a quarterly basis–we took seasonally adjusted growth rates from the Hong Kong Monthly Digest of Statistics, various issues. We first took logarithms and then interpolated it to a monthly basis using our own interpolation algorithm based on Fernandez (1981). We therefore urge caution in interpreting month-to-month movements.
  • Monthly unemployment: We took seasonally adjusted unemployment rates from the Hong Kong Monthly Digest of Statistics, various issues. The unemployment rate is presented in the Digest as a 3-month centered moving average.
  • Monthly real residential real estate prices: We took quarterly unadjusted real residential real estate prices from the St. Louis Fed’s FRED website. The original source of these data is the Bank of International Settlements (2020). We seasonally adjusted these data ourselves, took logarithms, and then interpolated it to a monthly basis using our own interpolation algorithm. We therefore urge caution in interpreting month-to-month movements.
  • Monthly real estate transactions: We took raw secondary transactions volumes directly from the online datasets published by Midland Realty (2020).

References

Bank for International Settlements (BIS), 2020, via FRED Database. “Selected residential property price series – data documentation”. Source: National sources, BIS residential property price database (http://www.bis.org/statistics/pp.htm). FRED URL: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/QHKR628BIS

Brown, Tanner, 2020. “Coronavirus slows China’s property market to a crawl — and even the most robust real-estate app is no match.” Marketwatch, Feb. 21, 2020, retrieved on Feb. 28, 2020. URL: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/coronavirus-slows-chinas-property-market-to-a-crawl-and-even-the-most-robust-real-estate-app-is-no-match-2020-02-18

Census and Statistics Department, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, 2020. Hong Kong Monthly Digest of Statistics, various issues.

Congressional Budget Office (CBO), 2006. “A Potential Influenza Pandemic: An Update on Possible Macroeconomic Effects and Policy Issues.” Manuscript, Congressional Budget Office. URL: https://www.cbo.gov/publication/17785

Cooper, Sherry, 2006. “The Avian Flu Crisis: An Economic Update.” Manuscript, BMO Nesbitt-Burns.

Douglas, James, Kam Szeto, and Bob Buckle, 2006. “Impacts of a Potential Influenza Pandemic on New Zealand’s Macroeconomy.” Policy Perspective Paper 06/03, New Zealand Treasury. Retrieved February 28, 2020. URL:

https://treasury.govt.nz/publications/ppp/impacts-potential-influenza-pandemic-new-zealands-macroeconomy-pp-06-03-html

Federal Reserve Bulletin, various issues, via Thomson Reuters. “References to ‘influenza’ in the monthly Federal Reserve Bulletin during 1918 and 1919.” Retrieved on Feb. 28, 2020. URL: https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/ce/7/8626/8607/INFLUENZA%20REFERENCES%20IN%20THE%20FEDERAL%20RESERVE%20BULLETIN%201918-19.pdf

Fernández R.B. 1981. “A methodological note on the estimation of time series,” The Review of Economics and Statistics 63, pages 471-478. URL: https://www.jstor.org/stable/1924371?seq=1

Garrett, Thomas A., 2007. “Economic Effects of the 1918 Influenza Pandemic.” Manuscript, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Retrieved on Feb. 27, 2020. URL: https://www.stlouisfed.org/~/media/files/pdfs/community-development/research-reports/pandemic_flu_report.pdf

Goldman Sachs, 2020. “A Larger Virus Hit and Another Round of Rate Cuts.” US Economics Analyst, March 1, 2020. Retrieved March 2, 2020. URL:  https://research.gs.com/content/research/en/reports/2020/03/01/31bfffb7-f94a-4c0e-b0d6-49b1468aed2f.html

Hatzius, Jan, Daan Struyven, David Choi, and David Mericle, 2020. “A Viral Global Slowdown.” Global Economics Analyst, Goldman Sachs Economic Research. Retrieved on March 1, 2020. URL: https://research.gs.com/content/research/en/reports/2020/02/28/ae384520-6a4b-415d-a6e6-6fa28e8e25ee.html

Kennedy, Steven, Jim Thompson, and Petar Vujanovic. “A Primer on the Macroeconomic Effects of an Influenza Pandemic.” Working Paper 2006-11, Treasury of Australia. Retrieved on Feb. 27, 2020. URL: https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/f605/da3a347548d5635e425a5531fdb64cd19c8d.pdf?_ga=2.70573072.1412815931.1583204112-1096427715.1583204112

James, Steven, and Timothy Sargent, 2006. “The Economic Impact of an Influenza Pandemic.” Mimeo, Economic Analysis and Forecasting Division, Department of Finance, Government of Canada. Retrieved on Feb. 27, 2020. URL: https://www.publicsafety.gc.ca/lbrr/archives/cn000034577651-eng.pdf

James, Steven, and Timothy Sargent, 2006a. “The Economic Impact of SARS and Pandemic Influenza.” In: SARS in Context: Memory, History, Policy, ed. Jacalyn Duffin and Arthur Sweetman. McGill-Queen’s Press. Retrieved on Mar. 1, 2020. URL: https://www.google.com/books/edition/SARS_in_Context/xAibijIszawC?hl=en&gbpv=1&printsec=frontcover

Jonas, Olga, 2013. “Pandemic Risk.” World Development Report Background Paper, the World Bank. Retrieved on Feb. 27, 2020. URL:  http://siteresources.worldbank.org/EXTNWDR2013/Resources/8258024-1352909193861/8936935-1356011448215/8986901-1380568255405/WDR14_bp_Pandemic_Risk_Jonas.pdf

Keogh-Brown, Marcus, Simon Wren-Lewis, W. John Edmunds, Philippe Beutels, and Richard D. Smith, 2010. “The Possible Macroeconomic Impact on the UK of an Influenza Epidemic.” Health Economics 19(11), pages 1345-1360. Retrieved on Feb. 28, 2020. Working paper version URL: https://www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu/resources/download/3828.pdf

Lee, Jong-Wha, and Warwick J. McKibbin, 2012. “The Impact of SARS,” in China: New Engine of World Growth, Garnaut, Ross, and Ligang Song, eds. ANU Press. Retrieved on Feb. 28, 2020. URL: https://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctt24h9qh.10?seq=1#metadata_info_tab_contents

McKibbin, Warwick J., and Alexandra Sidorenko, 2006. “Global Consequences of Pandemic Influenza.” Manuscript, Brookings Institution, Lowy Institute for International Policy. Retrieved on Feb. 27, 2020. URL: https://www.brookings.edu/research/global-macroeconomic-consequences-of-pandemic-influenza/

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Persons, W.M., 1931. Forecasting Business Cycles. John Wiley, New York, pages 93-143. Data available in the NBER Macrohistory database, via the St. Louis Fed FRED database. Retrieved on Feb. 28, 2020. URL: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1204BUSM363SNBR

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Siu, Alan, and Y.C. Richard Wong, 2004. “The Economic Impact of SARS: The Case of Hong Kong.” Asian Economic Papers 3:1, pages 62-83. Retrieved on Feb. 27, 2020. URL: https://hub.hku.hk/bitstream/10722/88855/1/content.pdf

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NextHome announces new Jacksonville-area office

NextHome announces new Jacksonville-area office

Stephanie & Alfred Sanalila

Pleasanton, CA — March 24, 2020 — NextHome is pleased to announce the newest addition to the franchise, NextHome First Coast, based in Saint Augustine, Florida. The brokerage represents the 68th office location opened in Florida for the NextHome franchise.

The brokerage is owned by the husband and wife team Stephanie and Alfred Sanalila. NextHome First Coast will serve clients across Saint Augustine, Jacksonville, Orange Park, Mandarin, and the remainder of Florida’s First Coast area. 

According to tradition, the First Coast is the first area of Florida to be colonized by Europeans. Today, people flock to Duval, Baker, Clay, Nassau, and St. Johns counties for their superior school systems and stunning coastlines. Stephanie and her team at NextHome First Coast will primarily serve the area’s booming residential market. 

“I’ve been very focused on serving families,” Stephanie said. “This area has been growing like crazy, and for good reason. There’s a ton of history here, some great museums, a fantastic downtown, and a beautiful waterfront. Combined, all these things make our area a great place to raise a family.”

Many of Stephanie’s clients are attracted by the St. John County School District. The district is ranked No. 1 in Florida by Niche rankings and consistently remains ranked in the top six percent of schools in the country. 

Stephanie’s career prior to real estate reflects her love of, and appreciation for, good education. Stephanie holds a master’s degree in business and spent about 10 years working in educational publishing. She also spent several years teaching marketing at the college level. Eventually, real estate became a family affair after Alfred entered the industry.  

Alfred has been a licensed broker since 2002 and, together, the couple has spent many years providing their clients with unique market insights and perspectives. For the last few years, Stephanie and Alfred worked in Saint Augustine at a large national franchise.

The Sanalilas always knew they wanted to own their own business. So when Alfred stumbled across the NextHome brand in 2019, both Stephanie and Alfred knew they had found the right opportunity. 

“We started seeing how smart the all-around NextHome concept was, and how brilliant the marketing was,” Stephanie said. “With my marketing background, that really was a high point for me.”

Alfred liked how NextHome was unlike any other national franchise he had seen. 

“As I dug deeper into NextHome it really seemed like a fresh approach to real estate,” Alfred said. “It fills a need in our area.”

Today, NextHome First Coast is setting itself apart from other brokerages through its personalized approach to real estate. 

“It seems like the majority of my customers think that they are my only customer,” Stephanie said with a smile. “They are not, but they feel that way. I love helping clients, and also our future agents, feel that way.”

Stephanie is also a talented educator. Today, she is a NextHome certified trainer, giving her the ability to help agents earn National Association of REALTORS® designations. 

“Stephanie brings knowledge to the table,” Alfred said. “Her clients depend on her to know the process, know negotiation, know everything from contract offer to closing. They lean on her to be that skilled professional, and she delivers. Her ability to share information in an easy, casual, and approachable way definitely comes out.”

When she isn’t helping clients and agents, Stephanie is passionate about serving the special needs community. This passion began with her late brother Steve and her service honors his memory. Stephanie volunteers with Tim Tebow’s Night to Shine program, giving special needs individuals the opportunity to attend an unforgettable prom night experience. 

Stephanie also volunteers with the Down Syndrome Association of Jacksonville and is an integral supporter of their annual Buddy Walk. In the past, she has also worked with the U.S. Special Olympics Team as a Bocce Ball coach. 

Together, Stephanie and Alfred have three children: Lilly (12), Luke (11), and Leo (5). When they have the chance, the family loves to travel. 

Please join us in congratulating Stephanie and Alfred on the opening of NextHome First Coast in Saint Augustine, Florida!

 

Interested in being a part of the NextHome Real Estate Franchise? Contact VP of Sales Charis Moreno at Charis@NextHome.com.

 

Each office is an independently owned and operated business.

Protecting your Furry Friends!

Protecting your Furry Friends!

Rolling into springtime and the month of March is always an exciting calendar change!  Not only do we get to “Spring Forward” with the clocks and enjoy more sunlight, but we also have warmer weather and time outdoors to enjoy with our pets.  The month of March happens to also hold these lesser-known “holidays:”

March is “Pet Poison Prevention Month”

March 3rd – 9th is “Professional Pet Sitter’s Week”

March 23rd is National Puppy Day

March 28th is Respect Your Cat Day

With so much emphasis given in March to our animals, we thought it was only right to highlight the Pet Insurance opportunity with Gateway Insurance Group.

We know how NextHomies love Luke!

We like to think Luke would be proud that Gateway Insurance Group has pet insurance policies available so Luke, and his NextHomies, don’t have to worry about the unexpected expenses that arise from veterinary bills.

Whether you’re looking for coverage on pet illness, cancer, emergency veterinary care, accidents or genetic conditions, pet insurance may have the coverage you need.

Gateway Insurance Group has partnered with “Healthy Paws” coverage. Highlights of their plans include:

  • No cap on maximum limit payouts
  • No costly “add ons”
  • Use at any licensed Vet
  • Easy to file claims right from your mobile device!

Protecting your Furry Friends has never been easier or more affordable.

To get a quote, visit our link at: https://www.healthypawspetinsurance.com/?affid=GIGI

NextHome Complete Realty announces Phoenix expansion

NextHome Complete Realty announces Phoenix expansion

Pleasanton, CA — March 19, 2020 — NextHome is pleased to announce the expansion of NextHome Complete Realty in Phoenix, Arizona. The brokerage is the second location for top-producing couple Jim Snodgrass and Maria Serino and represents the eighth NextHome office opened in Arizona for the franchise. 

This new brokerage will serve clients across Glendale, Avondale, Surprise, Goodyear, Buckeye, Tolleson, West Scottsdale, Phoenix, and the West Valley area.

Phoenix continues to be one of the fastest-growing areas in the nation, with Forbes ranking it among the top cities to find a job in 2020. 

“It’s a market that we’ve always wanted to be in,” Jim said. “We have had three great agents working around this area for a while and it was about time we had an office here.”

The Phoenix office is about 80 miles from Jim and Maria’s first NextHome Complete Realty location in Sahuarita, which they opened in 2017. 

“When clients work with NextHome Complete Realty, they are going to experience an amazing real estate transaction,” Jim said. “They are going to have superior guidance and agents who care about people the way they should.”

Jim’s first connection to real estate came when he found himself as a lead generator for a friend.

“My friend was a REALTOR® and I was sending them a lot of referrals from people I knew who were interested in buying and selling a home,” Jim recalled. “With as many leads I was providing, I thought it made sense to get my real estate license and work in real estate myself.”

Starting his real estate career in 2005, Jim saw immediate success as a REALTOR®. His background in business development in the medical field proved valuable and he quickly built his business. It was going so well that Maria joined him just a year later to become a two-person team to handle clients.

With 12 years at Tierra Antigua Real Estate, the couple was consistently at the top of the local sales rankings. They would often close more than 100 transactions annually.

After more than a decade of working for another broker, Jim and Maria felt it was the right time to open their own brokerage. With a degree in marketing and brand management, Jim wanted to start a real estate company that had a focus on consistent, clean branding and had the flexibility to adapt to a changing market.

“Maria and I were able to keep our business steady through the downturn of the economy by being proactive with our model and adapting to the shift,” Jim said. “By moving to short sale listings, we were able to not only stay consistent with our business, but become a resource for those in our community who needed it during a difficult time.”

After finding out about NextHome, the couple called several NextHome franchisees to see how they felt about being involved with a relatively newer franchise brand.

“Just speaking to the several NextHome brokers over the phone, I could tell they felt connected to the company,” Jim said. “That comfortability to tell us what they honestly felt about NextHome and how happy they were, let us know that this was the company for us.”

When not selling real estate, the couple of 19 years enjoy traveling and spending time with their two children, Antonio (17) and Angelina (15).

Please join us in congratulating Jim, Maria, and the rest of the team at NextHome Complete Realty on their expansion in Phoenix!

 

Interested in being a part of the NextHome Real Estate Franchise? Contact VP of Sales Charis Moreno at Charis@NextHome.com.

 

Each office is an independently owned and operated business.

NextHome announces Bradenton, Florida office

NextHome announces Bradenton, Florida office

Xena Vallone

Pleasanton, CA — March 18, 2020 — NextHome is pleased to announce the newest addition to the franchise, NextHome In The Sun, based in Bradenton, Florida. The brokerage represents the 67th office location opened in Florida for the NextHome franchise and the 446th NextHome office opened nationally.

The brokerage is owned by Xena Vallone, who has been serving the Sarasota and Manatee County area real estate clients since 2002. Xena and her team at NextHome In The Sun will serve all types of residential clients, providing expertise for first-time buyers, move-up buyers,  relocations, luxury purchases, and investment buying. In addition, NextHome In The Sun offers property management services. 

The brokerage helps all clientele across Bradenton, Ellenton, Lakewood Ranch, Siesta Key, Bradenton Beach, Longboat Key, North Port, Englewood, Venice, Port Charlotte, and the remainder of Manatee, Sarasota, and Charlotte counties. 

Xena entered real estate in 2002 following a career as a paralegal in New York. As a paralegal, she worked extensively with homebuyer contracts. 

“Because of that background, I am very particular and detail-oriented,” Xena said. “I make sure that our contracts are well written. In addition, seeing that process from the beginning of the contract through the end gave me valuable insights that I can now share with my clients.” 

After obtaining her real estate license in 2002, Xena experienced what it was like to work with two franchised brands – Coldwell Banker and Prudential – before opening her own brokerage in 2009.

In the midst of an industry downturn, Xena Vallone Realty expertly weathered the storm. As foreclosures expanded, Xena spoke at seminars and worked with area attorneys to give homeowners the skills and knowledge they needed to potentially save their homes. Xena also had a great team working for her at the time, and together they handled short sales. Xena Vallone Realty developed a reputation for excellent customer service and many of the clients Xena helped during the recession returned when they were ready to re-enter the market.

Xena Vallone Realty did well for 10 years. However, Xena knew that in order to recruit more agents in a changing industry she would need to offer the best marketing and technology available. She began researching franchises and several friends pointed her to NextHome. 

“First, I connected with NextHome’s Vice President, Imran Poladi, at a local event,” Xena recalled. “Then my friend Anand Patel opened a NextHome franchise in Tampa. Other agents then began telling me they were going to partner with NextHome. Finally, another friend of mine started his NextHome franchise and I began to think that I was missing the boat on this!”

After a careful six-month decision-making process, Xena opened NextHome In The Sun. 

“What really got me was NextHome’s back-end support and how well all the tools worked together,” Xena said. “Also, as a listing agent, I was really impressed with NextHome’s marketing capabilities. Then, when we went to California for our training, everyone was very welcoming and gave us a lot of ideas. The information and support you get is incredible. I really grew to love the family aspect of NextHome, probably because that’s a big part of how I want to do business.” 

Today, Xena is setting NextHome In The Sun apart with a focus on her company motto: Real Solutions, Unparalleled Service. 

“We are going to find solutions for any problem that might come up,” Xena said. “From contract to close we want to make sure everything works. I’m a checklist girl, so we make absolutely sure everything is in order and we have a reputation for showing clients that we are prepared. We are all about the experience!”

Xena has been actively involved in state and local real estate leadership for more than 10 years. She was the 2017 president of the REALTOR Association of Sarasota and Manatee, which is currently 7,000 members strong. In addition, she has served on several state committees. Xena previously served on Florida’s Resort and Second Home Committee, which she chaired in 2019. Currently, she is on Florida’s REALTORS® Attorney Joint Committee as well as Vice-Chair of Florida’s Forms Committee. Xena has also served as a board member for her local MLS area. 

When she isn’t working, Xena enjoys pampering her two beagles and spending time at Bradenton Beach with her husband Dave, her son and daughter-in-law, and their three grandchildren. 

Please join us in congratulating Xena on the opening of NextHome In The Sun in Bradenton, Florida!

 

Interested in being a part of the NextHome Real Estate Franchise? Contact VP of Sales Charis Moreno at Charis@NextHome.com.

 

Each office is an independently owned and operated business.